The Field Is Taking Shape
We’ve reached the point in the season where NPI Bracketology is becoming every more real and ever more perilous for teams on the bubble. With the latest NPI release and current conference leaders, we can continue to build a full projected NCAA field, and more importantly, start to see where the real pressure points are forming for those looking to secure their postseason chances.
Because right now, the biggest takeaway isn’t who’s in.
It’s how tight the at-large picture is becoming.
Projected NCAA Field (If the Season Ended Today)
Automatic Qualifiers (by conference leaders)
To project conference winners, I simply used those who were currently #1 in their conference standings from conference play (I know I know, there’s still conference tournaments, bear with me). Any draw in conference (ex. Calvin and Trine) was given to the team with a higher NPI score.
- Stevens (MAC)
- Carthage (CCIW)
- New Paltz (UVC)
- Southern Virginia (CVC)
- Randolph-Macon (ODAC)
- MSOE (NACC)
- Endicott (NEVC)
- Lasell (GNAC)
- Buffalo State (AMCC)
- Trine (MCVL)
- Saint Vincent (PAC)
- NJCU(CUNYAC)
- St. Joseph’s–Long Island (Skyline)
- Lancaster Bible (United East)
At-Large Bids
Given the above AQ pool, the following teams below would be the at-large teams chosen for the NCAA Tournament with the NPI information we have today.
- Springfield
- Juniata
- Messiah
- Cal Lutheran
- NYU
- Loras
- Aurora
The Bubble
The bubble just got a lot more crowded and a lot more volatile. Last week, the conversation centered around UC Santa Cruz and Illinois Wesleyan battling for the final spot, but Aurora’s losses to MSOE and Dominican completely shifted the picture. Instead of sitting comfortably in an AQ position, Aurora now projects as the 3-seed in the NACC tournament, which means they’re no longer the favorite to steal an automatic bid. That flips them directly onto the bubble, where they now join UCSC and IWU in a three-team race for what could realistically be the final at-large spot. And the timing couldn’t be more dramatic; UCSC just defeated Aurora tonight at Aurora… in terms of NPI that’s a road win (more valuable than home win) with a quality win bonus.
The NPI numbers won’t reflect this today, but because of that result I’d say UCSC is very likely above IWU minimally, and potentially above Aurora. That’s a huge bracket shakeup in just one match, and there are still a ton of games left as we approach the final two weeks of the regular season.