It just recently dawned on me that the Springfield vs. Cal Lutheran volleyball match I have been jonesing for and writing about every year in early January is ready to happen in just 5 hours. For years the two independents seemed to avoid playing one another presumably because of the former Pool B construct that died last year when the D3 National Committee embraced the NPI to choose every at-large bid, regardless of whether the teams were independent or not. Springfield has been traveling out west to Cal Lu’s backyard every January since the Kingsmen inception and they never once stopped in for even a cup of coffee. To be fair, they have played one regular season match when Cal Lu came to New England in late March of 2019 going 3-1 on that “road trip.” Its only loss then being to the Pride.
The only time I remember a gap longer than theirs for two Goliaths avoiding each other was last year when the committee so graciously arranged a first rounder for us between Juniata and Springfield, who only met 10 years earlier in the 2014 National Final. It did not disappoint! In fact, I seem to remember coming home from dinner that night just in time to see the last 34 of the 42 points in the 5th set a year ago last week. It was so inspiring I decided to spend hours writing a whole post about those last 34 points – “A Gift to the Juniata Faithful.” With the Eagles playing in the other semi before what I believe will be the treat that Kingsmen-Pride promises right after, I’d like to say I hope for that rematch. However, I just can’t because there is very strong numerical evidence suggesting it won’t happen. You see, the Knights from Southern Virginia have a little something to say about that!
Wouldn’t it be something if we had a final like the T100 is predicting with the Knights and the Kingsmen coming to blows. The fans could come to the match on Sunday dressed as nobles, merchants, squires, princes, and princesses, and maybe if Rob Wingert is broadcasting again this year, he could dress up as Merlin. (I sure hope he is because as good a coach as I know he is, I think he missed his calling as a sportscaster!) Coach Peterson and Coach Judd can be introduced as they come into the venue on horseback with their jousting lances pointing upwards, too. It would be a spectacle only rivaled by the play we’d expect to see on the court right after.
The forecast above has Southern Virginia outhitting Juniata by .116 (.309 minus .193) which some might find a little ridiculous. This as a consequence of their last two meetings those differences being .342 followed by a .198 when they played in the CVC Final. Look at it this way, if the third time doesn’t turn out to be a charm, then the geometric progress the Eagles should make in the delta H% values put it right in line with this forecast. (For math folks out there, it isn’t true this forecast is built from a geometric model of head-to-head play! That was SARCASM! – I actually used the graphs above to count 75% of the weight and their head-to-head results to count 25% to arrive at this forecast Delta-H% should anyone really be interested.) One thing is for sure, the T100 metric is giving Juniata far more of a chance to get this done than the analysis seen above. For Draft-Kings subscribers out there, the T100 metric says the Eagles are +220 and the detailed analysis above suggest it ought to be closer to +850. The truth, as it does most often, likely resides somewhere in between. (Math folks out there need to know those Money-Lines have juice built in already! LOL)
Do you see how the graphs for Cal-Lu above do not intersect? Some might suggest that implies they have failed to clobber anybody as they continue to “eke out” wins against Top 40 teams. Anybody who has been paying attention might suggest the same thing as they did have 7 matches against D3 teams go Cinco this year, and the Kingsmen prevailed in 6 of those. (Two more against Santa Barbara & Hope University that they didn’t come out on top.) Of course, the alternate hypothesis is they have gone to the Al Davis school of “Just Win Baby!” The only thing I do find mildly concerning is that they have been outhit by 3 teams they defeated this year which is only supposed to happen 1 in 20 times. For example, the only other time it happened in the other 62 matches against Top 40 competition played by the Final 4 teams above was on the day Springfield defeated Southern Virginia, but even those Knights only outhit them by a mere .002 as a consequence of one “monster set.”
I look at the steep grade of Springfield and the shallow grade of Cal-Lu in a different way, though. It suggests Springfield is highly responsive to the degree of strength of their opponent while Cal-Lu is far less so. Since Cal-Lutheran is better than these four teams in winning terminal points, this fact and showing little negative response in their efficiency to stronger opponents makes me think they are a slight favorite here. (The fact they have never lost an NCAA match with their 6-0 mark has little to do with this assessment! LOL)
What I can say with near certainty is that Sunday will bring us one of two likely matches. One could become a Renaissance Festival of sorts, if those in Virginia follow my vein of thought. Or the other could very well be a rematch of that Southern Virginia loss to Springfield earlier this year making it just two times the Knights haven’t come out the victor in 16 calendar months! Either way we all win!
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