Well, we appreciate the #2, #4, #6, and #8 (seeds) for earning their way into the Final Four next weekend. I think it’s also fair to say we appreciate the CVC and the Independents, too. (Or two as the case may be.) Coming off a weekend where 14 out of 14 home teams in conference tournaments automatically earned their way into the NCAAs, this weekend saw just 1 in 4 of those at home able to scan their tickets to the Final Four next week at the Cregger Center in Salem, Virginia.
What’s the forecast for next weekend?
Just one year removed from a tournament having 7 Cinco Deuces in 15 matches, this year’s has just 2 Cinco’s out of 15 matches played so far, none of them Deuces. The Pride of Springfield played a role in both of those as they defeated Mount Union 15-12 in the 5th set on Friday to then follow it up with another 5th set win defeating the home team from Carthage 15-8 the next evening. Some were upset the #4 had to travel nearly 1,000 miles to play the role of a home team against the #5 who actually was. It wasn’t without drama either, but Springfield managed to earn a Final Four trip for the first time since 2022, having bowed out in the first round each of the last two seasons after 9 consecutive National semi appearances from which came 5 Natty’s, 3 Natty Runner-up’s, and one third place finish.
Defending National Champion Cal Lutheran, in the meantime, traveled 3,000 miles to buzz through the best the UVC had to offer at NYU. The second which was the first loss of the 2025 year for the Violets. A pair of 3-1 victories has made the #8 seed (LOL) undefeated all-time in tournament history winning 6 of 6 over the last 52 weeks. Something has “Gotta Give” when the Pride, 25-6 all time in tournament matches, plays the Kingsmen next Friday. They are the only two teams in history with better than an 80%-win rate in tournament play.
The other side of the semi has a couple of CVC teams playing each other for the 3rd time in the previous 40 days. The Knights of Southern Virginia have won 6 consecutive sets against Juniata, outscoring them 151 to 115 along the way. It seems like a tall order for the Eagles to follow in the footsteps of their Women’s team from last Fall given the empirical evidence at hand, but the T100 ratings still forecast a 30% chance for Juniata to defeat the team whose only loss all year was to that very same Springfield Pride team referred to above. This is the Knights first Final Four ever, the only team of the group never having played one. The good news is that it takes place just 50 miles down the road from their campus.
The T100 Win Matrix for 2025:
Hi Eric- Bill Marusza here from Buffalo. I just wanted to shout out to thank you again for your incredibly generous dedication of time and talent. Your NCAA Men’s Division 3 Volleyball analysis and insights are truly appreciated and contribute greatly to growing our game! Thank you!!! Thank you!!!