The latest NPI rankings were published Monday morning, and there were some dramatic changes inside of the top 20. Springfield had the most notable shift, with their upset over Southern Virginia catapulting them from 6th in NPI to 3rd in a week; that’s a huge shift. Many across the landscape questioned how Southern Virginia could remain at the 2nd spot in NPI following a loss to Springfield. I’m simply going to remind those folks before that game Southern Virginia had two quality NPI wins over #11 Wentworth and Nichols before they played the Pride. The math speaks for itself.
We are one week away from conference championships so consider this the endgame. Based on how things have shaken out so far, a team needs to be within the top 10 of NPI to be within striking distance of an at-large bid this year.
Below you can find a link to a video discussing NPI in greater detail.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/kB40c440kRM?si=qQmID9KfE7X1xEe3
This is our fourth week of NPI Bracketology. Unlike years past, NPI makes it incredibly easy to project a field, removing much of the guesswork I used to have to do. In that regard, it’s an improvement over the previous system in my book. Below are the current top 20 NPI schools based on games played up to 3/30/2025.
| Team | Conference | Region | NPI Rank | NPI | PrevNPI |
| NYU | UVC | REGION II | 1 | 71.606 | 1 |
| Southern Va. | CVC | REGION III | 2 | 66.982 | 2 |
| Springfield | DIII Independent | REGION I | 3 | 66.363 | 6 |
| Stevens | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 4 | 66.065 | 3 |
| Juniata | CVC | REGION III | 5 | 65.357 | 4 |
| Carthage | CCIW | REGION IV | 6 | 64.815 | 5 |
| Messiah | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 7 | 64.737 | 7 |
| Cal Lutheran | DIII Independent | REGION IV | 8 | 63.888 | 8 |
| Vassar | UVC | REGION II | 9 | 62.102 | 9 |
| Aurora | NACC | REGION IV | 10 | 60.985 | 11 |
| St. John Fisher | UVC | REGION II | 11 | 60.865 | 10 |
| Wentworth | Great Northeast | REGION I | 12 | 60.715 | 12 |
| Loras | CCIW | REGION IV | 13 | 60.665 | 13 |
| North Central (IL) | CCIW | REGION IV | 14 | 59.66 | 14 |
| Hobart | UVC | REGION II | 15 | 59.48 | 15 |
| Misericordia | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 16 | 58.464 | 17 |
| UC Santa Cruz | DIII Independent | REGION IV | 17 | 58.304 | 16 |
| Nazareth | UVC | REGION II | 18 | 57.902 | 22 |
| Stevenson | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 19 | 57.628 | 19 |
| Baldwin Wallace | MCVL | REGION IV | 20 | 57.61 | 20 |
There were relatively few changes in the T100 model as well, outside of the bottom 15-20 teams shuffling around and a surprise breakout for Randolph-Macon down the stretch the conference favorites remain the favorites heading into the last week. There was potential for the CCIW to get a dramatic shake-up when Illinois Wesleyan took Carthage to 5, but the Firebirds prevailing in the 5th set maintained their hold as the favorite in the conference.
When creating our tournament field, I use the T100 system to project conference winners. So you’ll notice some conference favorites have shifted in the bottom pool of teams. I’ve updated the projected At-large bids accordingly.
As a reminder, 19 teams will be eligible for the NCAA Tournament, the largest to date. 14 teams will be win automatic bids from their conference championships (former Pool A bids). One of the big changes to tournament selection this year is the removal of the Pool B (formerly independent schools) and Pool C at large bids. From now on all schools who don’t receive an AQ from their conference are put into the same pool for at-large consideration. The schools with the five highest NPI scores from that pool will be the at-large bids for the tournament.
Using our T100 system, below you will find the schools with the highest probability of winning their conference tournament selected as the 14 automatic qualifiers.
AMCC: Buffalo State
CCIW: Carthage
CVC: Southern Virginia
CUNY: Baruch
United East: Lancaster Bible
GNAC: Wentworth
MAC: Stevens
MCVL: Mount Union
NEVC: Nichols
NACC: Aurora
Skyline: St. Joseph – Long Island
UVC: NYU
ODAC: Randolph Macon
PAC: Thiel
Removing the above teams from the at-large pool, the following five schools currently have the remaining highest NPI score, and such would be this years 5 at-large selections to round out the NCAA Tournament.
At-Large Selections
1. Springfield
2. Juniata
3. Messiah
4. Cal Lutheran
5. Vassar
On the Bubble
6. St. John Fisher
Springfield’s upset over Southern Virginia was a huge win for the Independents NPI wise, making them the #1 overall at-large bid and the first team off the board when conference champions are decided. The win likely solidified them as a potential host for the NCAA tournament as well, and Blake Arena is not a friendly gym to play in for opposing teams.
As I discussed last week, Vassar is clinging onto the last at-large bid as the battle between them and St. John Fisher comes down to the final games played. The Brewers currently have a 1.237 point NPI lead over the Cardinals with a week and change left. I’m not sure I can say the lead is insurmountable at this point, as Fisher can potentially get decent points with quality wins against Stevenson and Misericordia while Vassar “potentially” loses to NYU and Springfield this week. Even so, I’d rather be Vassar than St. John Fisher at this point from an NPI perspective, as any loss for the Cardinals puts them in UVC-or-Bust territory.
A small story worth watching would be the Battle for the NACC Championship. While I’d still consider Aurora the favorite to win the conference, it’s not out of the question for Dominican or Benedictine to pull an upset and win it all. If so, Aurora’s NPI score (60.985) is too low to be considered for an at-large selection as they are sandwiched between Vassar and St. John Fisher. There are scenarios where they lose and take the final spot from Vassar, but I suspect it’s more likely any loss in their tournament would effectively end their season as Vassar will only be playing top 20 NPI schools for the rest of their season (even in the UVC Tournament).
A caveat to all who are reading, this field is based on the data we had as of 3/30, when the latest NPI data was released. NPI is a continually changing number based on games being played, and a teams NPI score is in flux up until the final game is played next week.