The second NPI rankings were published Monday morning, and there were few changes inside of the top 20. The most notable movements came from Lancaster Bible cracking into the top 20, alongside Southern Virginia jumping up to 2nd from 6th in the list. Their win over Juniata was exactly what they needed to cement their status as a top NPI team, and while I’d feel good about their chances of winning the CVC, a little NPI insurance is always good.
This is our second week of NPI Bracketology. Unlike years past, NPI makes it incredibly easy to project a field, removing much of the guesswork I used to have to do. In that regard, it’s an improvement over the previous system in my book.
There were some small, yet notable, shifts in our T100 model as well. When creating our tournament field, I use the T100 system to project conference winners. So you’ll notice some conference favorites have shifted in the bottom pool of teams. I’ve updated the projected At-large bids accordingly.
As a reminder, 19 teams will be eligible for the NCAA Tournament, the largest to date. 14 teams will be win automatic bids from their conference championships (former Pool A bids). One of the big changes to tournament selection this year is the removal of the Pool B (formerly independent schools) and Pool C at large bids. From now on all schools who don’t receive an AQ from their conference are put into the same pool for at-large consideration. The schools with the five highest NPI scores from that pool will be the at-large bids for the tournament.
Using our T100 system, below you will find the schools with the highest probability of winning their conference tournament selected as the 14 automatic qualifiers.
AMCC: Buffalo State
CCIW: Carthage
CVC: Southern Virginia
CUNY: Baruch
United East: Lancaster Bible
GNAC: Wentworth
MAC: Messiah
MCVL: Mount Union
NEVC: Nichols
NACC: Aurora
Skyline: St. Joseph – Long Island
UVC: NYU
ODAC: Randolph Macon
PAC: Thiel
Removing the above teams from the at-large pool, the following five schools currently have the remaining highest NPI score, and such would be this years 5 at-large selections to round out the NCAA Tournament.
At-Large Selections
1. Juniata
2. Springfield
3. Stevens
4. Vassar
5. Cal Lutheran
On the Bubble
6. St. John Fisher
As it stands, Cal Lutheran and St. John Fisher are currently battling for the final NPI spot. Cal Lutheran has two impactful games against Hobart and UCSC left on their schedule, while St. John Fisher has NYU, Nazareth, Misericordia, and New Paltz. Given these slates, it’s possible St. John Fisher overtakes Cal Lutheran down the stretch. St. John Fisher obviously has the potential to win the UVC bid outright, but as I stated earlier, NPI insurance is always great.
A caveat to all who are reading, this field is based on the data we had as of 3/17, when the latest NPI data was released. NPI is a continually changing number based on games being played, and a teams NPI score is in flux up until the final game is played in early April.