The third NPI rankings were published Monday morning, and there were few changes inside of the top 20. We are officially in the homestretch of the season, with about a week and a half left of regular season matches and conference championships just around the corner. Based on how things have shaken out so far, a team needs to be within the top 10 of NPI to be within striking distance of an at-large bid this year.
Below you can find a link to a video discussing NPI in greater detail.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/kB40c440kRM?si=qQmID9KfE7X1xEe3
This is our third week of NPI Bracketology. Unlike years past, NPI makes it incredibly easy to project a field, removing much of the guesswork I used to have to do. In that regard, it’s an improvement over the previous system in my book. Below are the current top 20 NPI scores.
| Team | Conference | Region | NPI Rank | NPI |
| NYU | UVC | REGION II | 1 | 70.424 |
| Southern Va. | CVC | REGION III | 2 | 66.378 |
| Stevens | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 3 | 64.612 |
| Juniata | CVC | REGION III | 4 | 64.546 |
| Carthage | CCIW | REGION IV | 5 | 63.986 |
| Springfield | DIII Independent | REGION I | 6 | 63.961 |
| Messiah | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 7 | 63.672 |
| Cal Lutheran | DIII Independent | REGION IV | 8 | 63.264 |
| Vassar | UVC | REGION II | 9 | 63.162 |
| St. John Fisher | UVC | REGION II | 10 | 61.352 |
| Aurora | NACC | REGION IV | 11 | 60.858 |
| Wentworth | Great Northeast | REGION I | 12 | 60.766 |
| Loras | CCIW | REGION IV | 13 | 59.242 |
| North Central (IL) | CCIW | REGION IV | 14 | 59.149 |
| Hobart | UVC | REGION II | 15 | 59.006 |
| UC Santa Cruz | DIII Independent | REGION IV | 16 | 58.38 |
| Misericordia | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 17 | 58.272 |
| Lasell | Great Northeast | REGION I | 18 | 57.118 |
| Stevenson | Middle Atlantic | REGION III | 19 | 56.934 |
| Baldwin Wallace | MCVL | REGION IV | 20 | 56.904 |
There were some small, yet notable, shifts in our T100 model as well. When creating our tournament field, I use the T100 system to project conference winners. So you’ll notice some conference favorites have shifted in the bottom pool of teams. I’ve updated the projected At-large bids accordingly.
As a reminder, 19 teams will be eligible for the NCAA Tournament, the largest to date. 14 teams will be win automatic bids from their conference championships (former Pool A bids). One of the big changes to tournament selection this year is the removal of the Pool B (formerly independent schools) and Pool C at large bids. From now on all schools who don’t receive an AQ from their conference are put into the same pool for at-large consideration. The schools with the five highest NPI scores from that pool will be the at-large bids for the tournament.
Using our T100 system, below you will find the schools with the highest probability of winning their conference tournament selected as the 14 automatic qualifiers.
AMCC: Buffalo State
CCIW: Carthage
CVC: Southern Virginia
CUNY: Baruch
United East: Lancaster Bible
GNAC: Wentworth
MAC: Stevens
MCVL: Mount Union
NEVC: Nichols
NACC: Aurora
Skyline: St. Joseph – Long Island
UVC: NYU
ODAC: Randolph Macon
PAC: Thiel
Removing the above teams from the at-large pool, the following five schools currently have the remaining highest NPI score, and such would be this years 5 at-large selections to round out the NCAA Tournament.
At-Large Selections
1. Juniata
2. Springfield
3. Messiah
4. Cal Lutheran
5. Vassar
On the Bubble
6. St. John Fisher
Cal Lutheran’s NPI score improved enough to put them atop Vassar heading into the last week of matches as St. John Fisher firmly remains on the bubble. This is great news for the reigning DIII champions, as it gives them an extra cushion heading into the pivotal last week of matches when other teams will have extra games to help improve their NPI scores while they sit at home watching the dust settle.
As it stands St. John Fisher and Vassar are now battling for the last at-large bid. There is potential for St. John Fisher to overtake Vassar down the stretch given what the remaining matches look like. St. John Fisher only has Stevenson and Misericordia left to play in regular season games, whereas Vassar has New Paltz, Springfield, NYU, and Stevens in four of their remaining six matches. Losses in the NPI era are a lot more damaging than they were during the regional ranking era, and even going .500 again those teams could potentially drop Vassar into the bubble. It’s also possible that both teams perform well enough down the stretch that they both overtake Cal Lutheran, we won’t know until the last games are played.
A caveat to all who are reading, this field is based on the data we had as of 3/23, when the latest NPI data was released. NPI is a continually changing number based on games being played, and a teams NPI score is in flux up until the final game is played in early April.