Tuesdays With MORE

Having just realized the initial NPI came out I have updated the MORE to reflect it.

The latest development now projects Wentworth needing the GNAC Conference championship in order to be dancing. This is the first time all year that has been true. The largest difference of opinion seems to be surrounding how Massey and Inside Hitter have both Loras and North Central accounted for in their ranks as compared to the AVCA to a large degree, and to the T100 to a smaller degree. I look forward to how the NPI sees the 2nd and 3rd teams out of the CCIW when it shows itself.

An hour ago, I wrote the above. Here is my assessment for the question above:

Though the NPI sees North Central and Aurora in the same light as the experts do, it is pretty clear that it undervalues the resumes by Carthage and Loras because no expert had either ranked as low as the NPI did to start this process. Generally speaking, the MCVL’s top 4 teams are all pretty similar to the T100 at the present, too. As suspected, the NPI has assessed the 85th percentile and above admirably, though its pecking order at present would have NYU, Juniata, Messiah, and probably Carthage hosting regionals. It’s possible next Wednesday’s Stevens at Messiah match may have just generated a bump in interest in light of this?

The latest Central Z Scores of each model’s metric seems to show 5 tiers of teams among the best 15 in the land. Tier 4 suggests that if all the favorites claim victory in their conference, then two of Messiah, Vassar, and Loras will be dancing while one will not. Those teams in Tier 5 will likely need to win their conference, or in the case of UCSC, it will need to make a move here in the last month of 2025.

At this juncture of the 2025 season the movements from week to week are subtle and often related to outcomes less expected during the previous week. For example, last week Aurora defeating Loras and Hobart defeating Vassar seemed to be the ones providing the highest leverage for these minor shifts. Though the shifts might be minor movements their influence can often be the difference in a team having the opportunity to play for a Natty or not. I expect the NPI will take wins and losses such as these to potentially swing wider arcs because a 20-point difference in winners and losers can sometimes swing a full point NPI movement when the thresholds for qualifying might very well be by an order of a few tenths of a point. With 3 more automatic berths this year than last, it sure would be nice to have one additional at-large in future years to get the tournament to an even 20 teams, 5 per regional.