The remaining four teams have each played between 21 (Cal Lu) and 25 (Stevens & Vassar) matches against opponents ranked in the top 50 of the present T100. Between 15 and 19 of their opponents each are among the top 25, too – Vassar playing 19 Top 25’s to NYU & Cal Lu playing 16, with Stevens at 15. Among these 4 exceptional teams, there have been 6 matches played so far this year, Vassar & NYU both playing the other 3, including each other two times – Stevens playing all but Cal Lu so far. At 6:00 pm Eastern today, we get to see the only combination of these F4 teams that have yet to compete against one another on the court this year.
The graphics below show plots of H% as a function of the opponent’s rank for any match against top 50 competition all season, both theirs and their opponent’s. With H% a live ball indicator informing ball control functionality, I decided to complement it by offering where each team falls on the spectrum of adjusted Aces/Set and Service Errors/Set against a Top 10 receive, too. That is found in the lower left of the slides seen below. The bottom right portion of each illustrates likelihood for the Semi-final match to end up at any possible score plus a team’s overall probability to win, together with a hitting efficiency forecast. As you can see, the scatter of H% data has some significant variability about the lines of best fit, but with all 4 of these teams presently ranked among the best 7, assessing variability for any of them is better served scanning the scatter of data points in the first column cells within the opponent domain interval [1, 10]. Take note for the consistency and proximity a team’s colored points are to its efficiency line, there.
The first thing you might notice is the almost horizontal Stevens’ efficiency line across the opponent strength spectrum above and to the left, at least you should! This indicates it really hasn’t mattered how strong the opponent has been, the expectation is for Stevens to hit .350, regardless. There is little doubt this relates to their depth and liberal substitution practices in utilizing it, though. NYU has a mild response to opponent strength with its shallow slope rising about .020 in H% for every 10 opponent ranks moved (2nd Semi-final slide at the lower right). The Cal-Lu offensive efficiency line’s slope responds with roughly .030 H% improvement every 10 opponent ranks (above and to the right) as Vassar’s response is about .040 H% expected improvement for every 10 opponent ranks weaker their competition is rated. (2nd Semi-final slide at the lower left).
Look just above at the terminal serving game for Stevens’ logo. They do not typically hurt themselves by being overly aggressive. This is why they are at the top-right of the grid. This is where slightly less aces are generated with considerably less service errors as well. When you combine that trait with a team which generally sides-out when in system with less errors than any D3 team in America over the last couple of years, it sure is going to make things mighty difficult for the Kingsman tonight. Cal-Lu is farthest left on this same grid. Their adjusted aces per set metric against top 10 receives is the best of all these teams, and their service errors as a consequence remain about 15% less than either Vassar or NYU, still. However, they only get to play either of these teams should they defeat Stevens in the first Semi-final tonight. Just a couple days ago, as I wrote a “Then There Were 4” post, I was questioning if great passing has caught up to great serving, making highly aggressive risk-taking on serves more likely to fail than ever before. Probably doesn’t matter in this match because If Cal Lu doesn’t get this particular team out of system they will essentially “die by a 1000 cuts,” anyway. As the heavy “Dog,” against as functional a team as this, their motto tonight certainly ought to be “No Risk it – No Biscuit!”
The response a Vassar offense has shown when playing top teams, particularly top defenses, is one of the very reasons NYU defeated them in the UVC Championship match 12 days ago. That very same NYU defense is also the reason Vassar is playing them rather than Southern Virginia later tonight, too. Given the Southern Virginia over Vassar sweep I observed on March 2nd at the St. John Fisher gym, I feel comfortable thanking NYU on behalf of Coach Gary. Not being sarcastic, either! Vassar has won 4 of 7 sets against their Semi-final opponent tonight, and they hadn’t won any set against Southern Virginia. I think it’s a strong possibility they are more likely to figure out some things to be less affected by the NYU defensive game plan tonight than NYU is to continue their defensive pressure on par with what they showed at Kenyon Hall 12 days ago. Let’s face it – Look at the red offensive line for Vassar to the lower left compared to the Violet offensive line for NYU to the lower right. It strongly points to Vassar’s offense being a cut above. It was also Vassar’s defense which seemed to short- circuit the last time they met, too. However, it seems the Vassar Defense found something out against a pretty potent Wentworth attack last week. One could expect whatever that is might carry over to thwarting a NYU Offense not as good as Wentworth’s, especially given the familiarity with these teams having already played 7 sets this season.
In the past 25 months, both the teams in this second Semi-final match have been accused as being underachieving because of some of the matches they have lost in high leverage moments. The Nostradamus-like “Volleytalkers” over the last 3 seasons have at times been disparaging to both they and their long-time coaches, too. Last week, all that changed, and tonight, one of them will have a chance to stick another pin to let some more hot-air out of that argument, too.
I don’t know what is going to happen tonight. The story I tell above is narrated by the metrics I measure, and when it comes to the human spirit, metrics often can be pushed into the backdrop. However, their story is never not the truth. Like a defendant is never declared innocent in a court of law, only ever found “Not Guilty.” Sometimes, there just isn’t enough evidence to push a jury to the threshold the law expects to declare guilt, just like sometimes there isn’t enough, or the right kind of numerical evidence available to arrive with a correct conclusion about ball. That is all. Enjoy the gift of these Semi-final matches tonight!
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