“At-Large” Bid Viewpoints on Sunday at 4:30 PM…
If Vassar defeats NYU later today: (Vassar is a 1:3 Favorite at Home) – At 9:30 AM
The way I see it, the committee has a mighty difficult decision whose outcome will certainly tell us what they value. I think Juniata will be the first choice to get an at-large because they defeated Carthage 3-1. (At home on 2/1 in the inaugural FJ Invite). Also, their worst loss against Misericordia pales compared to NYU’s to Baruch. For Carthage vs. NYU, both have defeated Santa Cruz and both were defeated by Cal-Lu. It will be about head to head (NYU won their match), or it will be about that bad loss to Baruch, again. If valuing head to head, then NYU gets in, and if they de-value based on a bad loss, then Carthage probably gets in. I don’t think NCAA’s SOS should be a deciding factor for these two, NYU 1st (.671) and Carthage tied for 3rd (.643), as it has already been established this metric is biased against mid-west teams by almost the same amount as this reported difference between them. (Check out Massey & KPI to understand its a wash comparing these two teams SOS, also.) Should the committee value an SOS metric heavily with all 3, I suppose it might be possible to justify both Carthage and NYU before Juniata, but I can’t see them ignoring head-to head in arriving there. Their work is cut out for them for this decision!
If NYU defeats Vassar later today: (NYU is a 3:1 Underdog Away)
In a decision for choosing 2 of 3, now having Vassar being considered as a candidate with Juniata & Carthage, the choice might actually become more difficult, as if that seemed possible? I still believe the Juniata win over Carthage rules their entry into the fray. However, when measuring Carthage against Vassar, both defeated in their conference final like Juniata, and both having either won or shared regular season titles in the CCIW & UVC, unlike Juniata, the criteria might very well come down to SOS favoring Carthage (even with a statistic biased against them) and Vassar’s bad loss to Lasell. (Without Jacob Kim, as I understand it.) The latest T100 through this morning (not posted yet) presently has Vassar by a hair at 17.38 to 16.97, a loss to NYU would give Carthage a slight edge in T100 points! I would guess a Vassar loss today tilts in the favor of Carthage by a hair between these two. Should the committee simply focus on the SOS as a whole over the season, and then take into consideration regular season conference first place finishes in the deepest and best 2 conferences in the land as determined by interconference play, and the fact both Vassar and Carthage took a set from their conference champion opponent this weekend, then they would have to ignore Juniata’s 3-1 win over Carthage at home on 2/1. That would be bold, but I think just, also. Just as in “Justice” and also as in “Just glad I am not the one making this decision!”
Pool B Bid Decision Viewpoint on Sunday at 4:30 PM…
The way I see it, the committee has a mighty tough decision whose outcome will certainly tell us what they value. (Deja- vu) Both defeated Hobart (many did, even though they always made it tough on them), and both lost to Wentworth. This leaves a decision to be based either on Santa Cruz’s SOS supremacy compared to Nichols fewer defeats, having lost only 4 times to the same 2 teams all season, Wentworth & Springfield. However, Santa Cruz had a bad loss to Buffalo State during the year that might play into the thinking as well. Popular opinion has Nichols getting the nod over the Banana Slugs by a hair. If this happens, then it seems an SOS tilt wasn’t enough, and having a bad loss looming on the resume mattered, too. If so, then this might inform the way the committee could go with a Carthage vs. Vassar decision, should they lose today. Again, I am glad I do not have to make this decision.
Don’t forget the former decision is about which additional top 10 team should be left out while the latter is about which additional non- top 10 team should get in. I for one would much rather the committee make at-large decisions for all the teams not to get automatic bids (like the NCAA Basketball Committee does), which is more FAIR, even if it isn’t proportionally EQUAL. I am truly fatigued having been in a career continuously dealing with administrators whose action suggests not knowing the difference between these two things. The protocol being administered in the next 24 hours is going to demonstrate the discrimination against conference teams I have written about multiple times this season, most recently here. Maybe some who support protocols like these had childhoods where older siblings at Christmas time received age appropriate gifts they themselves wanted that their parents didn’t think were right for them at the time? That might be it, as that was the first time I remember feeling something wasn’t fair, when in reality, it wasn’t equal. LOL
Here is what I think we will see early on Monday. It won’t be perfect, but it would be just. With NYU defeating Vassar earlier, the bracket below did change a little since this morning. The update has been made to reflect the potential for Vassar to get a 7 or 8 seed instead of either Juniata or Carthage.
The bracket built above has 5 teams from region 4 in the tournament. Should Carthage get an At-Large, it seems as if putting them in the bracket with both Loras and Cal-Lu, pushing Trine to another region would be patently unfair to balancing the other 3, even if making some sense geographically. Since I am under the assumption that Southern Virginia might host at a nearby university and one team from the Midwest will need to fly east anyhow, it might as well be Carthage traveling to make the 4 regional brackets balanced. Of course the other way to save on costs would be to come to a realization for Vassar and Juniata being the most worthy At-Large teams, making no such flight East necessary. One can only hope these constraints are not part of any equation for such a difficult decision coming up for the committee.
Having just read FJs Editor and Chief, Ramius’ post, regarding his thoughts about Saint John Fisher still being a part of the conversation. As much as I might hope this to be true, I can’t see how a 3rd place regular season finish and a quarterfinal loss in a tournament weighs in like Southern Virginia last year winning the CVC regular season and then losing in a semi. That plus the NCAA’s second criteria related to SOS makes me think not only is Fisher on the outside looking in, but so might Juniata be too. Carthage and Vassar look like better candidates with an emphasis on SOS, I think.
I believe there are three certainties regarding the above. First, I will be crossing out one team’s logo on the bracket – Either, Vassar, Juniata, or Carthage. Second, I will be rearranging these logos a little bit tomorrow afternoon. Third, I will not have the privilege of writing in St. John Fisher’s name on a line above, though I would be thrilled to be wrong about this. Should Ramius be correct in his assessment and Saint John Fisher be somehow playing next week, I will be more than happy to return every penny he has paid me for the opportunity to write for Frog Jump this season! LOL
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