Disclaimer
Fair warning, I’m not an expert when it comes to the ranking process, and I’ve never been involved in one personally. But I’ve done enough homework to feel confident in my ability to project certain decisions based on the available data released by the NCAA. This article is a general well-informed guess as to how things might play out given the trends of this season and the general performances of D3VB teams up to this point. There is a lot of ball left to be played, and another round of rankings to be released, so the final picture isn’t set yet. Simply put, my thoughts don’t matter in the grand scheme of things so take them for what you will.
3rd Regional Rankings
The committee released the third regional rankings this past Wednesday, and playoff Volleyball has officially kicked off. The future of the NCAA landscape is currently being decided as I write this, and much of what I write now may very well be irrelevant based on results from today through tomorrow. I’ll do my best to give you an up to date picture now, and will most assuredly give you a final bracketology prediction once all the conference champions have been confirmed Sunday. Below is where things currently stand in the regional rankings as of 4/12/2022 (obviously matches have been played since, but we’ll get to that later). Below you’ll find the ranking criteria and the regional rankings as of this week.
- D3 Win/Loss %
- Strength of Schedule
- Win/Loss versus Regionally Ranked teams
- Record versus Common Opponents
- Head-to-Head Result
Region 1
1. Wentworth
2. Springfield
3. Nichols
4. Lasell
5. Baruch
6. Emmanuel
7. Rivier
Region 2
1. St. John Fisher
2. Vassar
3. NYU
4. MIT
5. Hobart
6. Nazareth
7. New Paltz
Region 3
1. Stevens
2. Southern Virginia
3. Juniata
4. Misericordia
5. Marymount
6. Messiah
7. Stevenson
Region 4
1. Loras
2. Cal Lutheran
3. Carthage
4. UCSC
5. North Central
6. Dominican
7. Aurora
Possible Tournament Field
We can begin constructing a Tournament field with the information above and the playing trends we’ve seen throughout the season so far. Below you’ll find a list of the likely Pool A candidates, if the #1 seeds in Conferences win their Conference Tournaments (below reflects the #1 seeds as of 4/10, any number one seed eliminated from their postseason tournament has been replaced with the next highest seed which remains in their conference playoff).
UVC: Vassar
CVC: Southern Virginia
MAC: Stevens
GNAC: Wentworth
CCIW: Loras
NACC: Aurora/Dominican
Skyline: St. Joseph – Long Island
MCVL: Wittenberg
CUNYAC: Baruch
AMCC: St. Vincent
United East: Lancaster Bible
Given the field above, the teams below were the front runners for the remaining bids as of 4/12 (meaning only matches played up to April 11).
Pool B: Cal Lutheran
Pool B: Springfield
Pool B: Nichols
With UCSC’s 3rd loss to Cal Lutheran, I don’t believe they have any chance of making the tournament over Nichols anymore. Nichols has a better win percentage and better record against ranked opponents which gives them a 2-1 lead in rank criteria (common opponents is a wash as they both have a win over Hobart, and head-to-head is irrelevant as they did not play each other this year).
Pool C: St. John Fisher / NYU
Pool C: Juniata
On the Bubble: Carthage
I’d be a little nervous if I was St. John Fisher at the moment. Their end of season slide to the 3rd seed in the UVC tournament puts them in potential upset territory against Nazareth. NYU’s late season surge to the 2nd seed in the UVC tournament has increased their at-large stock significantly, with a trip to the UVC finals potentially securing an NCAA tournament bid for the Violets assuming SVU, Stevens, and Wentworth win their conferences. As things stand, the only way I don’t see the UVC sending two teams to the NCAA tournament this year is if Nazareth gets hot and makes a run to the finals and loses. Since that’s the least likely option, expect to see some combination of Vassar/St. John Fisher/NYU in the NCAA tournament.
The Carthage at-large chances took a dive here, as their losses to Juniata and NYU in the beginning of the year keep them firmly in the bubble. Their bast path to dance in April is by winning the CCIW, which given how they’re playing is doable right now.