… The following produced in the afternoon of Thursday April 4, 2024
You’d think with just a few days left in the ’24 regular season, conference tournament brackets would be ready to roll with near certainty, but it seems apparent some schedulers enjoy building in high leverage potential for the last 3% of a season. Some, like the UVC, CCIW, AMCC, & MCVL shouldn’t even be penciled in unless there is a big eraser on its top. The UVC still has 8 different permutations still possible for its top 6 seeds to be pegged, with just 48 hours to go, and only Hobart knows exactly where they stand (5th). It also looks like the MCVL & CCIW haven’t determined a #1 tournament seed just yet, either. The AMCC uncertainty is heightened not knowing if they plan to do the Top 3 North and Top 3 South again this year, always producing potential to leave one of its better 6 teams home at tournament time, but there is no doubt Saint Vincent has earned their way to the top of it, though. Feel free to pencil in the NACC, UEAST, NEVC, and GNAC, each with minor changes possible, but those not likely to alter the latest narrative. Take out the quick drying ink, if you’d like, for the CVC, MAC, SKY, and CUNY as the “Fat Lady is singing” for their seeding outcomes, even if there are still some matches for pride still left on the docket.
For the next part of this post you will see 3 conference brackets at a time with a short narrative about how they may shake out. By showing them in groups of 3 conferences by regions, you can take note of 7 teams who made their way on to the latest Regional Rankings out yesterday at the NCAA site.
GNAC Still lots of matches to be played in one of the few conferences still adhering to the home/away concept for scheduling. It is not certain who ends up in the 3rd and 4th spot between Emmanuel & Rivier, but there seems little doubt both will move along from their quarter-final match. The advantage of arriving in the “3 Hole” is the opportunity to play Lasell first, rather than the Leopards. Certainly, if a team has its sights on big cat game, it would prefer it be in a final, but Lasell is the only one in the GNAC who has shown itself capable of being a big cat hunter so far, so it will take a big effort by either to create that opportunity. Both Rivier and Emmanuel are fighting to make its way on to the Region 1 list, and should both get there, the one to earn a 3rd seed will likely be higher up on it. The masses in the D3 landscape will be watching this tournament closely to see if Lasell can repeat last week’s performance, should they meet Wentworth in a final. If they could, then that will shrink the opportunity for Pool C at-large bids by half of what many were expecting.
The NEVC tournament is the last chance for Nichols to prove to the committee they belong in the NCAA Tourney. Endicott or Eastern Nazarene could have something to say about that before the committee gets to decide, though. It looks like the two SUNY’s will get after it again this season for the right to be placed in front of that Nichols locomotive, and near certainty for Endicott and Eastern Nazarene to have a great battle on the 11th to earn the right to possibly be one of the few from 100 conference teams who could win their last game of the season, should they be able to pull the upset taking Nichols off the track they have been on the whole season. Tonight’s match seems to only be for the right to have April 9th off.
The CUNY seems all set, as long as the tie-breaker between Brooklyn and Lehman has been determined correctly. Even if not, it matters little because either way they’ll play each other with the winner on a collision path with Baruch. Looks like Hunter will be trying to do what Baruch did to them last season by winning this tournament for a bid as the #2 seed. The odds are against them by a larger margin than they were for them last year at tournament time.
UVC The only conference I really can’t even peg so far because of the potential for 16 different combinations of wins in the last 4 matches (2^4th = 16), which could yield 8 different tournament brackets, jockeying the #1 thru #6 seeds. Two potential #1 seeds still possible, 4 different #2 or #3 seeds, together with a couple #4, #5, and #6 seeds still waiting to be determined. II can’t even say for sure that Hobart is the 5th at 3-4. I am sharing the UVC breakdown in an unusual manner at the end of this post, but suffice it to say that St. John Fisher could go 2-0 and finish the year as the host of the conference tournament, go 1-1 and be either the 2nd or 3rd seed, and might even go 0-2 this weekend to fall to the 4th or 5th seed in this crazy tournament. Fisher’s loss to MIT followed by Nazareth’s defeating the Engineers last weekend, set the stage for “Captain Chaos” to peak around the corner to look into this last weekend of the ’24 season. With at most 2 teams earmarked for Pool C, and this conference’s teams beating the tar out of each other, it becomes more likely the only squad to be in the National Tournament this year from the UVC will be its champion, and that could realistically be one of 4 different teams, with another two having more than a “puncher’s chance” to shock the world!
The SKY came into focus just recently when St Joes (LI) avenged an earlier loss to NJCU. Still some matches left this weekend, but it looks pretty solid that the above will be the bracket for their tournament. Even if Manhattanville catches up to finish 9-9 in conference, an 0-2 head-to-head against CMSV (UMSV as it is now going by, apparently offering the requisite number of graduate programs, etc.) makes the 5th seed a lock. As far as the expectation goes for this tourney, odds are 1-3 in favor of a St. Joes (LI) vs. NJCU championship match going down on 4/13. The same 1-3 odds in favor of St. Joseph’s LI earning their ticket to the dance. Let’s not forget that NJCU has been to the dance recently, and they have also taken 4 sets this year from SJ(LI), too. So it should be a good one, if that match comes to fruition next Saturday!
The UEAST is a done deal for its top 2 seeds, and should St. Elizabeth defeat Wilson, then it will be as written above. However, should Wilson upset the “apple cart,” then there will be a 3-way tie for 3rd & 4th with all teams being 1-1 against each other. My thought is it would be a tough get for Valley Forge, who defeated Wilson 3-2 at Wilson’s home earlier in the year, if the tie breaker goes deeper by sets won in those head-to-head competitions. Either way, it is a likely Lancaster vs. Cairn final, and Cairn is about a 10-1 dog in that one, but we wish them well in the endeavor.
CVC You don’t often see a standings table with 9 teams playing a round robin end the way the CVC did this year, with teams winning 8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,& 0 games. It appears the better team won 36 of 36 tries so far this year in the CVC, and with just 5 more matches to go in their tournament, 5 teams are hoping this changes so they can have a chance to punch their guaranteed ticket to the dance come April 13th. The 6 squads in this tournament from the CVC rival the best 6 in any conference, in terms of their ability to play with any of the MORE 25, all but one having been mentioned on that weekly list at some point this season. Juniata was the first to show how to defeat Southern Virginia in a set before Rutgers-Newark was able to double the feat and have them on the ropes in set #4 last week. No one to this point has solved the “Knight’s Puzzle,” yet. This tournament is another one where the collective whole of the D3 landscape will be watching very closely to see if Pool C potential evaporates for their teams. For those that didn’t know, if Juniata defeats Southern Virginia in a CVC final, Lasell repeats their victory against Wentworth in a GNAC final, and Carthage defeats Loras a second time this year in the CCIW final, it would be the first time in history an AVCA top 5 team will not be invited to join the NCAA Tournament. That is if the Coaches Poll doesn’t turn over a new leaf and actually allow a loss to move a team’s standing down more than a single notch. Could make a case every one of these 5 matches are “Dream Stream” worthy!
No drama from the MAC this year. While other conferences play matches this weekend that have potential to alter the D3 landscape’s future for many top 20 teams as they jockey for seeding position, it looks like the MAC tournament is locked and loaded. Stevens and Misericordia look to be on a collision course, but don’t forget that Messiah was a National semi-finalist last year, granted with some differing personnel. However, that kind of experience in the big moments has a way of coming to the forefront when the chips are all in, so the semi-final match is sure to be part of the “Dream Stream” on April 11th, too.
The AMCC goes into the last weekend with Saint Vincent clinched at #1, the winner of Hiram vs. Thiel should get #2* and the loser of it should clinch #3. Looks to be the winner of Hilbert at Geneva to be getting in and the other not, making it a virtual “play-in” game. Should Hilbert defeat Geneva and Altoona defeat Behrend, then Geneva would be on the outside looking in. *All this true, only if the AMCC is no longer doing their top 3 from North & South design, which hasn’t been determined by me as of yet from their site. If the North & South construct is in play like last year, then it looks like Thiel wins the North , regardless, and Altoona’s only chance is as stated above because in this construct, Hilbert will not be vulnerable to miss it.
CCIW The T100 model suggests Augustana has a better chance to upset Carthage this weekend than NC does as the dog vs. Loras. It is more likely both favorites (Carthage & Loras) will win and give Loras the #1 seed by a tie-break protocol. (If I believe the order in which the CCIW offers its standings at the present time?) However, it sure would be a Coup d’etat should North Central get back to finding the magic they had earlier this season, thereby opening the unlikely door to allow Carthage to swoop in and take the CCIW regular season crown away from a Loras team, which has been in the driver’s seat from day 1 of this 2024 season! Augustana may have lost 3-0 last evening to Loras, but the margins suggest they could make some serious noise in the CCIW tourney next week. If that happens, then you will hear a collective sad sigh across the land as the Pool C bids will have just been either cut in half or been completely washed by the failure of the #1 seeds to get it done at tournament time. The T100 has both Loras and Carthage as strong candidates to be in the NCAA Tourney as long as one of them defeats the other in a championship final. Otherwise, all hell breaks loose!
NACC It looks like Dominican will be the #1 seed. Should MSOE defeat Aurora this week, then there might be a 3 way-tie for the 2,3, & 4 seeds in the conference bracket. Otherwise look for it to be like it is written above. The 5,6, & 7 is nearly certain, but maybe with a little tie-break shift here or there. It looks like a March 26th, 16-14 win over Edgewood could get Lakeland to play a little longer this year, too. Unless of course Edgewood can defeat Illinois Tech on the last day of play. Should that not happen & Concordia Chicago somehow play their way past Marian, it is possible for a 3-way tie for 8th and the right to visit Dominican on April 9th in just 5 day’s time. This one seems wide open, but only once the better 4 teams likely make their way into the semis, when the stakes elevate significantly, with some really close matches forecasted on the 11th and the 13th of April.
MCVL Wittenberg & Trine will have a great showdown soon. Should the Tigers prevail, it will give them an undefeated conference season and the first seed. Baldwin Wallace in the meantime is going against Mount Union for the right to end up with the same 7-2 conference record before waiting to see if Trine can get it done or not. Should Trine win and Mount Union also win, then it looks like a #1 Trine will be playing a #4 Baldwin Wallace. However, should Wittenberg win and Mount Union get the job done there will be a 3-way tie for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place, the loser of which would have to face Wittenberg first. For now, I suspect the favorites make it so the Wittenberg and Baldwin Wallace programs likely end up #1 & #2, but it is not certain in the least. What is certain is these 4 teams have the market on playoff berths in the MCVL.
Here is a little bit of the chaos I was writing about when I looked in on the UVC– UPDATE FRIDAY APRIL 5TH AT 10 PM: The chaos, even more than I could fathom at the time, realizing just 24 hours after preparing the slide below, was based on a false premise for Nazareth owning just one UVC win and not the two they had rightfully earned. Thus making it possible there could still be a 4-way tie for 2nd place, allowing the Golden Flyers to earn a bye as a 2nd seed, less than 18 hours after playing to avoid 7th place – Something that would have been a second straight year of missing out on an invite to the UVC Tournament if they had lost. (Also presenting a highly unlikely, but possible, 6th seed for Hobart with a 3-4 record in conference play.)
A ripple effect essentially making the the analysis on the slide seen below, although cogent at its inception, entirely invalid! So I “nuked” it! All this coming about because of a 1 being placed in a cell, when instead it should have been a 2! Reminds me of what I wrote just a few days ago regarding the biased SOS metric – The only thing I hate more than having no information to make a good decision is having the the wrong information. So Captain Chaos reminds me none of us are immune!
You can check in any time next week to see the state of any conference bracket by clicking here.