Subtracting rating points between opponents yields a forecasted set score difference. i.e. For a team rated 14.5 and another 12.5, the expectation would be for the stronger to win a set by 2 points on a neutral court. Home court adds a quarter point and the away court subtracts a quarter point. In this example, the higher ranked team at home is a 2.5 point forecasted set favorite, making it a 79% favorite to win a 3 out of 5 match played between them. (Roughly 72%, if away makes the delta = 1.5, instead. – See table below.)
Delta (adj)
0
.6
1.3
2.1
3.4
7.0
P(Win) %
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
99+%
Point differences required to improve chances of winning a match by 10% are provided on this table.
