Subtracting rating points between opponents yields a forecasted set score difference. i.e. For a team rated 14.5 and another 12.5, the expectation would be for the stronger to win a set by 2 points on a neutral court. Home court adds a quarter point and the away court subtracts a quarter point. In this example, the higher ranked team at home is a 2.5 point forecasted set favorite, making it a 79% favorite to win a 3 out of 5 match played between them. (Roughly 72%, if away makes the delta = 1.5, instead. – See table below.)
Delta (adj) 0 .6 1.3 2.1 3.4 7.0 P(Win) % 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 99+%
Point differences required to improve chances of winning a match by 10% are provided on this table.
RANK TEAM CONF RATING REG 1 Cal Lutheran IND 17.52 4 2 Wentworth GNAC 17.38 1 3 Southern Va. CVC 17.31 3 4 Stevens MAC 17.15 3 5 Springfield IND 17.04 1 6 Vassar UVC 16.50 2 7 NYU UVC 16.46 2 8 St. John Fisher UVC 16.36 2 9 Carthage CCIW 15.83 4 10 Nazareth UVC 15.77 2 11 North Central (IL) CCIW 15.55 4 12 Juniata CVC 15.43 3 13 Messiah MAC 15.38 3 14 SUNY New Paltz UVC 15.13 2 15 Marymount (VA) CVC 15.10 3 16 Benedictine (IL) NAAC 14.79 4 17 Loras CCIW 14.72 4 18 Dominican (IL) NAAC 14.43 4 19 Misericordia MAC 14.23 3 20 Baldwin Wallace MCVL 14.14 4 21 Randolph-Macon CVC 14.10 3 22 Nichols NEVC 13.84 1 23 Aurora NAAC 13.67 4 24 UC Santa Cruz IND 13.65 4 25 MIT UVC 13.61 2 26 Lasell GNAC 13.59 1 27 St. Joseph’s (L.I.) SKY 13.59 2 28 Rutgers-Newark CVC 13.58 3 29 Mount Union MCVL 12.96 4 30 Lancaster Bible CSAC 12.91 2 31 Stevenson MAC 12.72 3 32 Rivier GNAC 12.70 1 33 Augustana (IL) CCIW 12.68 4 34 Marian (WI) NAAC 12.66 4 35 Hobart UVC 12.53 2 36 Ill. Wesleyan CCIW 12.46 4 37 MSOE NAAC 12.20 4 38 Concordia Wisconsin NAAC 12.14 4 39 Hunter CUNY 12.10 1 40 Trine MCVL 12.01 4 41 Kean CVC 11.98 3 42 Arcadia MAC 11.91 3 43 Roanoke CVC 11.61 3 44 Elmira UVC 11.43 2 45 East. Mennonite CVC 11.41 3 46 Wittenberg MCVL 11.36 4 47 Endicott NEVC 11.18 1 48 Baruch CUNY 11.02 1 49 Ramapo SKY 10.80 2 50 St. Norbert NAAC 10.76 4 51 IIT NAAC 10.75 4 52 Adrian MCVL 10.71 4 53 Fontbonne MCVL 10.68 4 54 Emmanuel (MA) GNAC 10.48 1 55 Hiram AMCC 10.48 3 56 Wabash MCVL 10.44 4 57 Wilkes IND 10.43 2 58 New Jersey City SKY 10.42 2 59 Eastern Nazarene NEVC 10.38 1 60 North Park CCIW 10.21 4 61 Regis (MA) GNAC 10.18 1 62 SUNY Potsdam NEVC 10.12 1 63 Concordia Chicago NAAC 9.85 4 64 Edgewood NAAC 9.81 4 65 Emerson GNAC 9.59 1 66 Thiel AMCC 9.56 3 67 SUNY Poly NEVC 9.52 1 68 CCNY CUNY 9.50 1 69 Penn St.-Behrend AMCC 9.48 3 70 King’s (PA) MAC 9.38 3 71 Mt. St. Joseph MCVL 9.24 4 72 Penn St.-Altoona AMCC 9.22 3 73 Olivet MCVL 9.17 4 74 Elizabethtown CVC 9.15 3 75 Eastern MAC 8.99 3 76 Geneva AMCC 8.85 3 77 Saint Vincent AMCC 8.82 3 78 Widener MAC 8.80 3 79 Hilbert AMCC 8.78 3 80 Va. Wesleyan IND 8.76 3 81 Wis.-Stevens Point IND 8.67 4 82 Drew IND 8.66 2 83 Buffalo St. IND 8.56 2 84 Simpson IND 8.40 4 85 Lakeland NAAC 8.27 4 86 Cairn CSAC 8.10 2 87 John Jay CUNY 8.00 1 88 Calvin MCVL 7.92 4 89 Rockford NAAC 7.84 4 90 Immaculata IND 7.64 2 91 Mount Aloysius AMCC 7.52 3 92 Wis. Lutheran NAAC 7.42 4 93 Elms GNAC 7.07 1 94 CMSV SKY 7.00 2 95 Wells AMCC 6.98 3 96 Wilson CSAC 6.95 2 97 Chatham IND 6.86 3 98 Bard NEVC 6.85 1 99 Russell Sage NEVC 6.52 1 100 Houghton IND 6.46 2
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