Quick takes on the Cal-Lu-Fornia Invitational?
Lindsay: Cal Lutheran couldn’t get by Wentworth, but otherwise they went 5-1. That’s a good stretch for any team, especially a group that is a postseason lock. they’re playing well, but they’re also very comfortable with playing everyday for an extended stretch. That could make them very dangerous in April.
Maybe a more surprising headline is Baldwin Wallace left California without a win. They’re 8-11 now and have seem to come up just short in a number of matches this year. I’m still buying them as the MCVL champs and hopefully this experience can prepare them for the NCAAs.
Harvey: Is this the first year that the UVC doesn’t have a national title contender? There is no doubt that the UVC is the best conference in the country when it comes to top to bottom depth. But if SJFU can’t hang with Cal Lu, I am not sure they can break into that top 5 discussion.
Ramius: Quickest take, Wentworth remains a favorite for the national championship, Cal Lutheran remains a favorite for the final four. It’s likely these teams will face each other again in the postseason, whether it happens during the final four or the national championship is up to bracketing.
The long take, these two teams alongside Stevens, Southern Virginia, and Loras are building what I think might be one of the best NCAA tournaments we’ve had in years. Five of these teams are capable of a run to the championship, only four of them will make the final four, and only two of them can play for the ultimate prize. Excuse me as I book my ticket to Dubuque.
Which match result caught your eye the most last week?
Lindsay: Can I just say New Paltz? If I said they played Springfield, MIT and Hobart but only beat one team, who would be your guess? It’s been an interesting season for NP, but clearly you can’t count Pat Wing and company out against anyone.
Harvey: My colleagues took the eye popping results, so I am heading under the radar. Rutgers-Newark toppling Messiah was shocking to me. While the Golden Dome is a notoriously difficult road venue, I think that Messiah has quite a big talent advantage, especially in the middle. To see RU-N slow down Givens caught my eye.
I would say, Stevnenson had one of the best 1-2 weeks that you can have – including a predicted upset of Lasell.
Ramius: I’d have to highlight a collection of matches honestly, the first being Elmira stunning NYU in a 3-0 sweep, immediately followed up by NYU rebounding from this loss with a five-set win over Hobart. Elmira is a good program, you don’t hang around in the UVC unless you can compete, that’s simply a rule. They outworked NYU start to finish and earned the win. Anything can happen in the rally scoring era, and no team in the UVC is safe.
On the flipside, people need to remember NYU has a lot of talented players on it, and they’re widely considered one of the top 20 teams in the country by a slew of experts outside of the pond (Massey, AVCA, etc). Their win over Hobart shouldn’t surprise anyone, much like people shouldn’t have been surprised if Hobart beat them, it’s the nature of conference matches.
Which conference tournaments do you have as the most/least competitive going forward.
Ramius: A lot of people have been surprised by the UVC results this season, I’m simply not. I’m going to sound like a homer here but the UVC has been like this since its inception in 2011. The conference is a shark tank, and the number one seed in the conference tournament has won the championship less than 45% of the time. Our analyst Eric Ingerick has written a few articles in the past on the nature of UVC competitiveness, and I highly recommend people give them a read. I’ve said it a lot over the years, but to reiterate, anyone who makes the UVC tournament has the ability to win it, and I’ve seen plenty of teams run hot to the conference final out of nowhere.
Harvey: The NACC is a wild card. Dominican has been coasting on their win over NCC early in season, but hasn’t really had a standout result since, their upcoming match with Ben U is one to keep an eye on for this week. Also, Aurora might have the best attacker in the conference with Josh McLellan which bodes well come conference tournament time.
The least competitive is the GNAC. Wentworth continues to trend up and Lasell continues to trend down. The only question I have is if Laboo will finish as the leader in both Kills/Set (2nd) and Hitting Percentage (1st).
Lindsay: Even though Loras further solidified their place at the top of the CCIW with the win over NCC, I still have that as the most exciting conference race. It’s always more fun when the final four site has the host playing and it looks like Loras is taking that very seriously.
I’m going to disagree with the guys’ take about anything being non competitive. There’s always a chance for an upset in the finals of a conference game. You just never really know
Who’s winning the independent race after week 10?
Harvey: I think the race has been decided.. Cal Lutheran has already crossed the finish line. With only 3 Division III losses (2 to the Top 4 teams) and a potential of 10 Regionally Ranked wins. They have cemented themselves up top. Springfield has a solid resume, but it just doesn’t match with what Cal Lu has.
Lindsay: Can someone get on a conference call and ask Nichols to play Santa Cruz? Does it work like that??
Ramius: Cal Lutheran and Springfield are the top two independents bids. The interesting race comes down to Nichols versus UCSC, and it’s probably still too close to call. I’ll get into this more when I write my bracketology piece later this month, but a quick preview.
Using the NCAA criteria (the only criteria that matter), the argument between the two is tough to choose between. I’m assuming both schools will be regionally ranked (Nichols in region 1 and UCSC in region 4), which is generally the first criteria to get a bid. Nichols has the edge in season win percentage (.810 to UCSC’s .571), UCSC will probably win the strength of schedule category. Common opponents will be a wash, as both teams have wins over Hobart and losses to Wentworth. We can’t forecast their regional ranked records yet as we don’t have that data till late March, but as it stands the only losses Nichols has on it’s resume are to Wentworth (2x) and Springfield (2x), UCSC has losses to several good teams on their resume but a potentially backbreaking unranked loss to Buffalo State as well. I’d say Nichols is in the lead currently by a hair, but UCSC’s win over Marymount at the Cal Lu tournament should keep them treading water.
Nichols has no matches against potential regionally ranked teams left on their schedule, so their schedule is about as good as it’s going to get. They’ll need to avoid any embarrassing losses until the season ends (I suspect they will but you never know). UCSC will need to run perfect until their matches versus North Central and Cal Lutheran at the end of the regular season, and I’d wager at least take one of those games.
What matches do you have on your radar this upcoming week? Who is on upset alert?
Harvey: There are a ton of huge conference showdowns to choose from. We will know a lot more about conference playoff pictures after this slate of matches.
Dominican vs. Benedictine
Marymount vs. RMC
Naz vs Elmira
Aurora vs. Benedictine
Upset pick: Give me Hobart over Juniata. I think the Statesmen give the Eagles fits from the service line and I’ll be curious what Coach DeHaven cooks up to slow down Andrew Kim.
Lindsay: NYU vs MIT is an exciting one for me. After this week of craziness in the UVC I have no clue. I guess we just have to pay attention to every matchup. Nobody is safe.
Ramius: The NACC matches this week I think are really interesting. Dominican and Benedictine are generally the heavy favorites in the conference every year but Aurora seems to be finding a second wind during this half of the season. For a potential upset pick, give me Randolph Macon over Marymount.
Who are your personal top 5?
Ramius: Wentworth, Stevens, Southern Virginia, Loras, Cal Lutheran
Harvey: Wentworth, Stevens, Southern Virginia, Loras, Cal Lutheran
Lindsay: Southern Virginia, Wentworth, Stevens, Cal Lutheran, Loras