… I will finish my remarks by playing on the notion that these Knights, like those of the round table led by Arthur (Coach Tom Reynolds) are to be reckoned with the remainder of 2024. Having watched them accumulate 24 blocks in those 6 sets played against 2 of the better 10 teams in America, I am reminded of Lancelot’s strategic take on battle, having said, “You have to study your opponent: How he moves, so you know what he’s gonna do before he does it.” That is essentially how Southern Virginia approaches its defense. And it’s NASTY!
From my post-game follow up for Spotlight #4, and a quote by Richard Gere as Lancelot in the movie “First Knight.”
It isn’t often a fan can take a 5 minute drive to watch 6 hours of elite volleyball action between 3 of the better 10 teams in the nation, each one believed to be commensurately skilled in the art of Serving, Passing, Setting, Hitting, Digging, & Blocking, all at a level to which very few will ever achieve. As I woke this morning with intent to do a “Spotlight” follow-up, just like every other week last month, I found myself being pulled in a different direction. A consequence to witnessing the very thing graphics had been screaming at me for days, even though some healthy skepticism resulting from a weaker SOS kept reminding me it can’t be this dominant, can it? It, referring to the prowess of a Southern Virginia’s defense not allowing others to score, at least nowhere near as often as their opponents are accustomed.
I sat in the Nazareth gym on Thursday evening, about 40 hours before the weekend’s premium competitive stakes would be measured, and asked some coaches, “So is this Southern Virginia defense as otherworldly as the metrics seem to imply?” I can’t even say for sure what the response was, or even if there was one. Maybe the confidence in preparation to play such an opponent or the pride for which they have in their own, dampened any response either enough for me to not remember it, or believe it was ignored before the discussion transitioned to the MASH unit that was Nazareth’s bench on this night. I returned home and put some finishing touches on the Spotlight post I would publish the next morning and went to bed.
Let me share something I told another recently, “I sometimes have contempt for a data driven society, when there are too many who think that (big) data is the story, rather than what it means to interpret it, or to respect being able to interpret it well.” I already had Southern Virginia’s 2022 graphic from when they met St. Joes in the Sweet 16 of that year. Southern Virginia was the #5 seed to St. Joes #12, and like so often happens in March Madness, the #12 defeated the #5 (35% in NCAA BB, I am sure less in NCAA VB). I also had the ’24 version of themselves because of the Spotlight feature from Friday. How hard would it be to go check out the data from 2023 to complete the 3-year cycle? Not so bad as they played only 22 matches. So now I get to see a progression of this team’s journey looking at it through a prism of efficiency and function as it relates to the strength of their opponents. That was, by itself, somewhat telling. But that is only half the story. Just because a team experiences significant growth doesn’t provide contrast for how it measures up against the greats!
Aha, I got it, that same 2022 NCAA Tournament had two of the better offensive teams in the last couple years, Carthage & Springfield who met in the championship, and I could dust those off, too. Now, I only need the 2023 champion Stevens data to create a trifecta of comparisons to have what I seek about this year’s Knights. How hard could it be? Hello Stevens with your 38 matches in a season last year, could you please take a page out of the Southern Virginia handbook? LOL
You are welcome to peruse the slide linked here or below with the graphics determined by these teams in these years, and some explanation for how to read them. (They are prettier than words, also.) However, I will summarize below:
- The best offensive team in the last 3 years was Carthage ’22 who would be forecasted to hit .360 against a 0th ranked team in the country. (FYI the 0th ranked team is one better than the first ranked. LOL – A theoretical construct derived from Least Squares Regression Line’s for efficiency graphs determined by their y intercepts.)
- Springfield ’22 was offensively very close to Carthage at .351. It also had the best defensive forecast to hold a 0th ranked team to a .152 efficiency. That gives Springfield the best end of year, and obscene, H% Delta of .149 (.351-.152 = .149) against a 0th ranked opponent.
- For comparison sake, Stevens ’23 had a H% Delta = .285 – .214 = .071 playing a 0th ranked opponent. To be fair the 40th ranked team in ’22 was lesser skilled than the 40th in 2023, and no doubt lesser than the 40th this year, too. This metric over time will be convergent for this reason.*
- At present, Southern Virginia has a defensive efficiency for a 0th ranked opponent at .128, 16% less (.024) & better than Springfield ’22, and together with its offensive efficiency for the same 0th ranked opponent at .282, right on target with Stevens ’23, they presently have a H% Delta more obscene than Springfield ’22 at .154.
The reason these graphs aren’t steeper, and as a result would intersect left of a 0th opponent, is a function of teams not playing their best players all the time. (It causes regression lines to be less steep because better skilled players would have scored higher efficiencies and allow lower ones against far inferior skilled opponents, something there is no reason to consider by any coach who recognizes the object of the game is to “Just win, baby!” In a perfect numerical world the #1 team in the country would have lines intersect directly above the 1, and if that point were (.275, .275) that would mean if they played themselves, starters on starters, they would hit .275 on each side. However, that perfect numerical world would mean coaches aren’t showing sportsmanship, so it surely wouldn’t be desirable for other worlds, like the real one.
*A convergent metric occurs when offenses and defenses get simultaneously better thereby dampening variance in statistics. Like MLB averages still being around .260 even though batters are so much better than yesteryear. Oh yeah, so are pitchers, too. The reason there will never be a .400 hitter ever again in the game.
You must be logged in to post a comment.