Pond Talk – 3/22

1. We have a “Best of the Midwest” matchup between Carthage and Benedictine coming up this week, who do you see coming out victorious and why?

Harvey
I have Carthage taking this in three sets. NCC was able to slow Slivinski a bit, but it did not make the match much more competitive. One could say Carthage is soaring and firing on all cylinders (puns intended) and I think the gap from 1 to 2 in the Midwest is bigger than 2-4 (however you want to rank Benedictine, Dominican, and North Central).

Bradley
Carthage. They have taken care of business against a very good North Central team twice now, in which both matches were sweeps. Thereafter North Central went on to take down Benedictine in 5. This will be one of the bigger challenges for Carthage this season, but I predict that Slivinski takes over for 18 kills, .350% in a 4-set victory. If Benedictine wants to pull off the upset, they will need a huge performance from Grygo.

Ramius
I hate to do this to Benedictine after drafting two of their players for my Fantasy team, but I have them as underdogs going into this match. As Harvey noted, NCC was able to slow Slivinski to one of his worst performances of the year, and it still did not matter. NCC has only gotten better this year (shown by their recent 5-set win over Benedictine), and a second 3-0 sweep over them by Carthage says a lot about this Firebirds squad. They remain unbeaten, and have handled their opponents this week in what has by far been their toughest stretch of games. A win over Benedictine will cement their status as the best of the Midwest. If the match goes to 5, I think Benedictine will be favored, otherwise I have Carthage 3-1.
 

2. Since Misericordia’s defeat of Stevens, the MAC power struggle has been incredibly vivid. Thoughts on who eventually stands atop the conference?

Harvey
If I was forced to make a pick, it would be Messiah. I’ve been high on them early, evidenced by my breakout student-athlete article. Ultimately, I think there are too many variables to have any sort of certainty with this pick. Messiah beat Stevenson without two starters, Stevenson hasn’t been at full health, finally getting Aleks Melbardis back this weekend but losing Stauffer.

Arcadia is looking sharper with each match after having no athletic activity in the fall, specifically the play of Quinn Bailey. Stevens has been adding new pieces into the lineup lately ahead of their big showdown with Stevenson this weekend.

Bradley
I think in the end, the MAC will come down to Stevenson and Messiah. Logan Smiley and Mason Nissley are already putting together All-American caliber stats this year and have been fun to watch. If I had to make a prediction right now for the conference championship, Stevenson defeats Messiah for the MAC title.

Ramius
The MAC will be one of the scrappier conference tournaments for sure. I think Stevenson remains the favorite, they will stay atop the standings with a 3-1 win over Messiah versus their 3-2 loss in the split. I would have to agree with Harvey on their being a lot of unknowns going into this conference tournament, especially as Arcadia has been picking up their level of play. I would not sleep on them given what I have seen so far, and outside of Stevenson and Messiah I think they become the dark horse candidate moving forward.

3. Earlier this week, Kean upset Rutgers-Newark after having lost to them pretty handily (for which all of you viciously mocked me for suggesting was possible!). Now we have Ian Capp and Jake Milnazik back in the Kean line-up, how does that affect the balance of power in the CVC?

Harvey
I think it takes Kean to the top of the conference. The return of Capp and Milnazik is not only a huge talent boost over their predecessors in the line-up, but it makes those who were already in the line-up better and more efficient. Specifically, Jared Ray. The service pressure they can provide will help to protect their Achilles heel (middles), while also allowing them to attack in transition where we have seen Ray be able to score with less talented setters. I think Juniata will be the biggest threat due to Kevin Duffy and Kean’s issues matching up with him. But any of them could beat one another on any given night.

Bradley
The fact that a Jared Ray-Kean was able to beat Rutgers without Capp and Milnazik amazes me. Moving forwards, the return of these two makes this team significantly better for the remainder of the season. They both have the experience to step up in the big moments and at this point I see Kean as the top team in the CVC. The top 2 contenders to Kean are Juniata and Rutgers, with SVU a little ways behind them.

Ramius
Just going to say, to the whole D3 landscape, I told you so! To the questions at hand, Kean becomes a contender, and in my view the favorite for the CVC. Rutgers and Juniata can play with them for sure, but Milnazik and Capp are seasoned and stable veterans at this point. They’re the running mates Jared Ray will need and Kean is demonstrably more dangerous with both of them active and playing.

4. Thoughts on what SJF’s two wins over New Paltz this weekend means for the UVC?

Harvey

On paper it means a lot. Nobody knows exactly what the NCAA tournament will look like but let us all be thrilled that it is going to happen. If there are any at large bids available, it means SUNY New Paltz is likely out of consideration (crazy I know). But the best hope for the UVC is that one team runs the conference start to finish (Nazareth, SJFC, Vassar) and then another wins the tournament to make it a two-bid league (if that is even plausible).

Bradley
As a New Paltz alumnus, I can guarantee this will spark a fire in the Hawks Nest. I hope these teams find each other in the UVC playoffs because I have all the faith in the Hawks when it matters most. On the other hand, I must give credit where credit is due and tip my cap to St. John Fisher for taking care of business regardless of the lineup New Paltz came in with. SJFC did what they needed to do to get their UVC wins, and this will play a big role in conference playoff seeding.

Ramius
It is no secret that Bradley and I are both fairly proud New Paltz Alumni, so this question was a kick in the teeth (I say being the one who wrote it for Pond Talk). But it’s a good chance for me to explain where I stand on X-players not playing and match outcomes.

Simply put, when Kean lost to Lancaster Bible, Kean lost to Lancaster Bible. There is no asterisk next to that on their schedule, there is no excuse in the box score, it simply says Kean lost. Likewise, there is no asterisk next to New Paltz’s loss to SJF, and there is no excuse in the box score. As a coach and an athlete, I never want to see people debase the success of others with excuses, and I will touch more on that in the next question.

For the UVC, it is a great pair of wins for SJF and a bad set of losses for New Paltz. I for one could not tell you how the at-large bids may work this year for the tournament, but I would say it’s championship or bust for any team not named Vassar in the UVC right now.

5. This year is unlike any other for obvious reasons, and itself presents its own challenges. What do you each think it will take to go the distance this year for those programs with NCAA aspirations?

Harvey
Luck. It plays a part every year, but this year more so than others. Whether it is staying COVID free, peaking at the correct time, or not cancelling matches that prepare you. Luck will play a major factor.

Bradley
The first step begins with performing well in the conference tournaments. As we saw in 2019, many of the favored teams did not win their conference, which resulted in some great teams losing out on at-large bids. When I think about postseason volleyball, especially at the D3 level, it comes down to which team peaks at the right time. Which team will step up in the big moments, perfect their game and properly prepare physically and mentally?

This year will also require players, coaches, and other staff to remain healthy. As we saw this past week with New Paltz, Covid precautions can play a huge role. If a team gets exposed to the virus late in the season, their NCAA title aspirations may go down the drain.

Ramius
Discipline, sacrifice, and a new appreciation for what volleyball involves this year. Injuries happen, ncaa violations happen, athletes transfer… all these situations occur as part of “volleyball” each season. Navigating all of them is part of the sport.

This year, “covid” is part of volleyball, and being good at volleyball has to mean being “good” at not getting covid if you want to win. Bradley touched on this a little earlier, but the pandemic is easily the biggest threat to any team with championship aspirations. A covid outbreak at the wrong time this year, of all years, could effectively end your programs season. We are living during a once-a-century phenomenon, and I by no means intend to play down the vast human suffering that has occurred over the last year; at the end of the day Volleyball is a game.

But I can already see the writing on the volleytalk walls, X team won the championship only because X team did not have X players due to covid: that is an excuse, and champions do not allow for excuses. I am beyond grateful the student athletes who make D3VB possible are given a chance to compete given the circumstances. I would have wanted to as as well if I were still in college, and given the chance, I would want to win it all.  

6. As always, who are your current top 5?

Harvey
1. Springfield
2. Carthage
3. Vassar
4. Don’t
5. Know

Bradley
1. Springfield
2. Vassar
3. Carthage
4. New Paltz
5. Kean

Ramius
1. Springfield
2. Carthage
3. Vassar
4. Kean
5. Endicott

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