First NCAA NPI Rankings Reveal the Early Championship Picture
The first NCAA NPI rankings are finally here, which means the road to the 2026 NCAA Division III Men’s Volleyball Championship has officially begun.
While conference races are still developing and several contenders have major matches left on the schedule, the release of the first NPI provides our first real glimpse into how the NCAA committee currently views the national landscape.
For the first time this season, we can start asking the question that matters most: If the season ended today… who would make the tournament?
Before diving into the projections, it’s important to understand how the field is actually built.
How the NCAA Tournament Field Works
The NCAA Division III men’s volleyball championship features 21 total teams. The field is made up of 14 automatic qualifiers (AQs) from conference champions and seven at-large selections chosen by the committee using the NCAA Power Index (NPI).
Once conference champions are determined, the committee fills the remaining spots with the highest-rated teams in the NPI that did not win their conference tournaments.
That means two things:
- Winning your conference guarantees a spot
- Everyone else is fighting for seven at-large bids
This is where the NPI becomes the most important metric in the sport. The index evaluates teams using winning percentage and strength of schedule, while also incorporating quality-win bonuses against strong opponents.
With that in mind, let’s project the field using the latest NPI rankings and current conference outlooks.
Projected Conference Champions
These are the teams currently projected to win their conferences based on the T100 and conference standings.
AMCC: Buffalo State
CUNY: NJCU
CCIW: Carthage
CVC: SVU
GNAC: Lasell
MAC: Messiah
MCVL: Wittenberg (our T100 power ranking system predicts Wittenberg as the conference winner at the moment, but Calvin currently is the number 1 seed in the MCVL standings with a win over Wittenberg)
NEVC: Endicott
NACC: Aurora
ODAC: Randolph-Macon
PAC: Thiel
Skyline: St. Joseph-Long Island
United East: Lancaster Bible
UVC: New Paltz
With the 14 automatic bids accounted for, the remaining seven spots would go to the highest NPI teams that fail to win their conference tournaments. Based on the current NPI numbers, the early at-large picture would be the following programs.
- Springfield (Independent)
- Juniata (CVC)
- Stevens (MAC)
- Cal Lutheran (Independent)
- NYU (UVC)
- Loras (CCIW)
- Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW)
On the Bubble: UCSC, Rutgers-Newark
Some of these teams may ultimately steal automatic bids, which would shift the bubble dramatically. But right now, these programs sit in the tier where every match against a ranked opponent matters for NPI positioning.
Thoughts Moving Forward
The first NPI release doesn’t determine the bracket, but it does set the framework for where the landscape currently is. Conference tournaments will eventually decide the automatic qualifiers, but the NPI is already telling us which teams are positioned safely inside the tournament and which ones are still fighting to stay in the conversation.
For now, I’m keeping a close eye on the battle brewing between UC Santa Cruz and Illinois Wesleyan.
Historically, UCSC and Cal Lutheran have cannibalized each other when it comes to earning an independent bid out of the West Coast. At the moment, Cal Lutheran sits in a solid NPI position, while UCSC is currently on the outside looking in. Meanwhile, Illinois Wesleyan holds the final projected at-large spot if the season ended today.
However, the situation is far from settled.
UCSC still has several matches remaining that could significantly impact its NPI standing. The Banana Slugs currently have only 11 of the 13 bankable wins used in the NPI calculation, meaning their score is artificially suppressed because two wins do not yet count toward the formula. As those wins are replaced with bankable results, UCSC’s NPI is almost certain to shift upward.
In other words: UCSC is very much still in the hunt.
Remaining schedules
UC Santa Cruz:
North Central, Benedictine, Aurora, Illinois Tech, Dominican, California Lutheran (twice)
Illinois Wesleyan:
St. Norbert, Loras, North Central, North Park, Carthage, and the CCIW Tournament.
With multiple matchups still ahead for both teams, this race could easily come down to the final week of the regular season.
And frankly, I’m here for it.