Top 10 (with nuance)
Earlier this month we posted our Preseason Top 10, and as always, it stirred up opinions. That’s the point. Rankings aren’t meant to be comfortable, they’re meant to start conversations, test assumptions, and force clarity about what actually matters right now.
For those unfamiliar, FrogJump rankings have been driven by an algorithm since their inception. Whether it was the original FrogJump Top 20 piloted by founding member Bradley Schneider or the T100 model created by Eric Ingerick, we’ve always tried to lean on data over opinion whenever possible. If you’re looking for a pure opinion poll, that’s what the AVCA Coaches Poll is for.
That said, preseason rankings live in a gray area. With limited data, there are pieces the model simply can’t capture yet, transfers, graduations, roster reshuffling, internal development. That nuance matters, and it deserves discussion. That’s the purpose of this piece: where I think the model nailed it, where I think it missed, and why those distinctions matter as the season takes shape.
1. Springfield
The Pride return the majority of their roster from last season, plus a potential impact transfer in Nathan Goh from Ball State. This group ran into the Southern Virginia buzzsaw in the national championship match, but there’s a very real chance Springfield is the one wielding the chainsaw this year. Jake DesLauriers, Carter Durivage, Sam Levinson, and Dylan Mulvaney all return as All-Americans. Losing Chris Rouleau hurts in the middle, but as it stands, Springfield sits atop the landscape to start the year. I’d be shocked if Goh doesn’t find his way onto the court, the real question is how the pins shake out once matches begin. Springfield beat Carthage last season, but given Carthage’s year-over-year growth, I’d actually favor the Firebirds in a neutral-court rematch right now. Good thing Springfield is hosting at home!
2. Carthage
Our model slots the Firebirds at No. 2, but if I were assigning opinion, “1b” feels more accurate. The young core Carthage has developed over the last two seasons is now fully driving the program’s production. Unfortunately, OH1 Owen Otto tore his ACL to begin the year and will miss most of the season. Carthage is one of the few teams capable of absorbing a loss like that thanks to their depth at the pins. Owen Hendricks and Ball State transfer Ryan Bartz should carry the load early, with Ryan Monohan waiting in the wings as arguably the best freshman pin in the country. Throw Ben Heise at Opposite into the mix, that’s an offense creating nightmares in April.
3. Southern Virginia
Championship windows are narrow. You usually get a few real shots within a three- or four-year cycle. Southern Virginia spent years knocking on the door before closing the Christian Sheaffer era with the program’s first NCAA Championship. Full disclosure: nobody ever really knows who will be on the Knights’ roster until it’s announced. From everything I understand, they’ll be very young this season after significant graduation losses. As long as Tom Peterson is at the helm, Southern Virginia will be good. This ranking assumes continuity, and that’s where I’m skeptical. Too much of the championship core graduated for me to feel confident at No. 3, but it’s Southern Virginia.
4. Stevens Institute of Technology
Koby Sherman was arguably the most impactful player in DIII last season not named Christian Sheaffer. Few players could take over a match the way he did, so his graduation forces a shift in Stevens’ identity as they look to maintain dominance in the MAC. The returning core of Levandoske, Li, Hoke, Knuckles, and Olcott is good enough to win a lot of matches, and Stevens has the depth to replace Sherman and Huyke with capable bodies. The model still sees Stevens as the MAC favorite, but that confidence may be tested early. I’m curious if they’re the best team in their conference this year.
5. Vassar
One of two teams from my home region to land in the preseason Top 10—and for good reason. Vassar will likely be the biggest team across the net most nights. Shawn Zeng, Walter Birnbaum, and Armaan Desai tower over the landscape, and the addition of 6’9″ opposite Carroll Jenkins raises an interesting question: does Zeng slide to the left? The most important addition may be setter Kaden Chen, who fills a position of need and has a chance to make the offense his own. It might feel early to slot them at five, but long term this is one of the hot takes panning out. Brewer’s look like a top five team by season’s end.
6. Juniata
My own team out of Huntingdon. We’ll win some. We’ll lose some. I’ll get hate mail. Tale as old as time. That’s all I’m saying.
7. Messiah
Messiah might run the fastest offense in the country right now, and they feature two of the most impactful players at their positions in Alex Kagoro (OH) and Brandon Sharp (S). Kagoro may be the best player in the MAC, and I could absolutely see Messiah as the team to beat in the conference this season—no slight to Stevens. This is where the model and my gut diverge, and the games will ultimately settle it.
8. Aurora
The Spartans are likely the second-best team in the Midwest behind Carthage. The reigning NACC champions have methodically built a regional power, supercharged by the addition of 6’8″ Canadian outside Josh McLellan. Logan Brouwer took control of the offense after transferring from Quincy, and the emergence of SJ Nelson gives Aurora a true secondary pin. I like Aurora a lot, but eight feels closer to their ceiling than their floor unless something unexpected breaks in their favor. The Carthage Mountain in the Midwest is a tall one to climb this season for them.
9. Wentworth
Wentworth has ruled the GNAC for so long that NCAA Tournament bids have become routine. This will be their final season in the GNAC before moving to the Conference of New England, which now sponsors men’s volleyball. Entering the year, Wentworth should be the conference favorite, though Lasell has a habit of making things uncomfortable.
10. New Paltz
My alma mater rounds out the Top 10. The Hawks played one of the toughest schedules in DIII last season and return much of a young roster while other programs reload. The face of the program is Nikko Tennedorio (OH), last year’s AVCA Freshman of the Year. This is one of the widest-variance teams in the Top 10. Consistent opposite play could make them under-ranked, while sub-par out-of-system offense could push them the other way. I’ll be interested to see what the year over year growth is for this squad, as my gut says they might be appropriately ranked at 10. Look forward to finding out on 1/23 when we host them in the Kennedy Center.
The Nuance: Teams Outside the Top 10 I Expect to Matter
A. NYU
NYU is punished heavily by the model due to graduation losses, more than I think is warranted. Emerson Evans remains one of the most terminal opposites in the country, and Devyn Nguyen will still be setting him. Freshman Charlie Clifford has real early-impact potential. Even in a retooling year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see NYU flirt with the Top 10 by season’s end.
B. UC Santa Cruz
The Banana Slugs are being slept on, criminally. Riley Norman (OH) and Kyle Ownbey (MB) are elite at their positions, and UCSC has a long history of being a brutal out regardless of opponent. Their 2026 schedule is loaded with NPI opportunities, and there’s a strong chance they’re the best DIII team in California this year. If they win the matches I expect them to, they’ll be dancing in April. Eyes on the Slugs.
C. California Lutheran
CLU brings in eight freshmen, a clear signal of a rebuilding year following their 2024 national title and 2025 Final Four run. Losing Jordan Cooper, Borys Horiuk, Ben Webber, and Michael Stahl is a massive hit. Rumors of incoming D1 transfers add intrigue, but until we see it on the floor, their ceiling remains an open question.
D. Marymount
Another team I think is being slept on. Marymount is outside our top 10 in the preseason, but my eye test has them about as good as New Paltz and Wentworth. The team will likely start three freshmen, and they look to be incredibly dynamic this year. Looking forward to see how the Saints play out this season.