I do not have time to do the 5th set of the Vassar vs. NYU Semi-Final the justice it deserves here today. It was likely better than Juniata’s 5th set last week when it defeated Springfield in round one, then inspiring me so much I had to write a whole post about the way it went down, blow by blow, just hoping any who read it could feel the tension of its drama as if they were watching it with me. Last night’s final set score, almost identical, the Brewers winning 21-19 after having also survived 6 match points against them, just as Juniata had a week earlier before it prevailed. The biggest difference being last week both teams were going for broke with their service and many points ended almost before they started, but last night there was a willingness by Vassar to be interested in keeping their serve in play with off-speed spins and floats, creating some insane rallies. NYU continued to serve very well with speed, seemingly not backing off, 2 match points in particular I thought they had won for sure as I saw the ball clear the net. But Vassar’s receive somehow put the ball in play to eventually earn the side-out to tie it up again. Hardly ever, if ever, on the first ball! I think this is why it surpassed last Friday’s match on the “Drama-Meter.” When a high leverage point is abruptly over, with no possession by a serving team, your system can reacclimate almost right away, but the anticipation when both teams get multiple possessions was simultaneously intoxicating and exhilarating! A Dopamine Fiesta.
I almost feel guilty having yet to mention the Cal Lu Semi-final, 5th set win over Stevens right before the Vassar win on that same Loras College court! The Kingsman down and out more times than Rocky Balboa in Rocky 1,2,3,4, & 5, combined. Yo Adrian, “THEY DID IT!” I can’t even count the number of times I thought (and texted) Steven’s uncharacteristic hitting & serving errors opened doors that allowed that magnificent Cal Lutheran heart to keep beating, just long enough to put themselves back in contention again. As Rock mentioned in Creed II, “Every champion was once a contender who refused to give up!” The last of these many runs, a degree to which is hardly ever seen with functional side-out teams such as these, was after Stevens took a 10-6 lead in the 5th. A team up 10-6 in the 5th wins the match 87% of the time. Nobody told this to Cal-Lu, apparently? Over the second half of this 5th set, the Kingsmen removed the monarch from the throne by a subsequent 10-4 margin, the last of which was maybe the most impressive ace in the heat of the moment I have ever witnessed in my lifetime. Now we will have to wait to see if they or the Brewers will be the one’s to replace them on it tomorrow afternoon.
I don’t know if I am more enthralled with the competition being as good as it has been the last 5 days having 5 consecutive matches being Cinco Set Deuces, or the mathematics defining it, honestly. However, I am the math guy, so I am compelled to figure out the chances of what happened in these last 5 days when 5 consecutive matches ended in this manner. (Set aside the fact that 2 others out of the previous 9 were also Cinco Set Deuces, an event roughly only 2% by itself!) Lets start by taking a look at the Venn diagram created last week from checking in on the nearly 1500 matches played this year, and some audio with it to offer a sense of how remarkable it all has been:
For comparison, let’s begin with the simple fact these 5 matches have all been won by the lower seeded team, i.e. the dogs, according the the NCAA Committee who built the bracket. Forget about the whole 5 set thing. Forget about the whole 2 point margin thing. For these matches, what were…
That is pretty unlikely, isn’t it. Now, lets take a look at the 3 fairly self explanatory stages for what we really want to figure out. The chances these 5 matches all went to Cinco Set Deuce status being won by dogs, only? Here is Stage #1 of the process:
Now that we know they went to Cinco Sets, how likely is it for them each to end up with 2 point margins? Well I went to every Cinco set this year and determined 28% of them were won by a victor who defeated their opponent by a 2 point margin. So here is Stage #2 of the process:
So now that we have established they were 2 point wins in the 5th set, what are the chances all the dogs won? (One might think it is 50-50, but the truth is the favorite is about 52%-48% to be the first to take a 2 point lead in these situations. The slight favorites NYU and Springfield had 12 match points between them compared to the 5 the dogs who defeated them had in their matches…) This makes Stage #3:
We humans are pretty terrible at comprehending numbers as small as this, just like we are also terrible at comprehending really large numbers like 77,000,000, also. Our brains were not built for it. Anybody interested in why that is can check out this.
In my best attempt to help any sticking with me this far to understand what that number up there really means, here are a few worldly situations mathematically equivalent:
- You are 100 times more likely to be struck by lightning this year than you were of seeing 5 consecutive Cinco Set Deuces (CSD’s) happen in the last 6 days in this tournament. So now that we have experienced that, avoid going out in those stormy conditions the rest of the year!
- An electron microscope can’t see anything as small as this fraction of a millimeter and that same electron microscope can see an atom. Thinking if its smaller than an atom then it sure is mighty small, huh?
- If the final match goes to a Cinco Set Deuce like the 5 before it, the chances winning the Power-Ball Lottery is more than 3 times as likely as what would have happened on these volleyball courts. Normally I would say don’t bet on it. The championship being a CSD or the Power Ball, but maybe I need to reconsider?
- Think about if every car, truck, bus, etc. registered in the states of California, New York, and New Jersey (The states our Final 4 teams are located) were given entry into a raffle to win free gas for a year. Your car or truck you drive would be twice as likely to win that raffle than the chances those 5 volleyball matches went CSD this week. Free gas for a year and it is double the chances of what I just saw? Too good to be true!
- Drawing any Ace from a deck of cards followed by consecutively drawing the King, Queen, Jack and 10 of the same suit in order. So when a magician does that in front of your eyes, he lied! LOL
Congrats to our #5 & # 7 seeds in making it to the National Final tomorrow afternoon! Out of the 24 teams to find themselves playing for a National Championship in history, Cal-Lu is the 20th highest seed and Vassar is tied for the 22nd highest seed ever to have played in it. Whoever wins will claim the distinction for being the highest seed ever to be crowned a National Champion in Men’s D3 Volleyball, and it sure as hell won’t be because they didn’t deserve it. Of this I am certain!