Disclaimer
Fair warning, I’m not an expert when it comes to the selection process, and I’ve never been involved in one personally. But I’ve done enough homework to feel confident in my ability to project certain decisions based on the available data released by the NCAA. This article is a general well-informed guess as to how things might play out given the outcomes of the Conference Tournaments and the remaining teams eligible for Pool B/C bids. Simply put, my thoughts don’t matter in the grand scheme of things so take them for what you will. But I might be able to walk you through the decisions most likely being discussed by the committee at this very moment.
*** Remember**** The committee has data I do not, like up to date SOS, Common Opponent Numbers, and the final regional rankings, the data I use is based on everything we have up till last regional rankings plus a few conference tournament finishes. My information is a little incomplete.
We can make some educated guesses based on the results we’ve had this season and the criteria the NCAA selection committee uses to determine at-large selections. The NCAA DIII manual has all the criteria publicly available for those interested in their decision making, but for reference the primary selection criteria are going to be as follows.
- D3 Win/Loss %
- Strength of Schedule
- Win/Loss versus Regionally Ranked teams
- Record versus Common Opponents
- Head-to-Head Result
Pool A consists of all the teams aligned with an athletic conference which sponsors a Men’s Volleyball Championship. Pool A bids are reserved for the winners of these championships. They are listed below.
CCIW: Loras
NACC: Dominican
MCVL: Trine
UVC: NYU
CVC: Southern Virginia
MAC: Stevens
GNAC: Wentworth
AMCC: Hiram
SKYLINE: St. Joseph’s College – Long Island
CUNYAC: Baruch
United East: Lancaster Bible
Alongside these teams, five programs from the D3VB landscape will be chosen by the selection committee to enter the NCAA tournament. Three are Pool B bids and the remaining two will be Pool C bids. Pool B is composed of independent institutions and institutions that are members of conferences that don’t meet the requirements for automatic qualification (NEVC). Pool C is composed of the remaining institutions from both Pool A and Pool B.
At-Large Bid: Pool B
Based on the conference results, last week’s regional rankings, and the expected ranking shuffle from this week’s results… I believe these will be the first teams selected for the following bids tomorrow morning.
Pool B: California Lutheran (top Independent)
Pool B: Springfield
Pool B: Nichols
With UCSC’s final loss to Cal Lutheran at the end of the season, Nichols retained a 2-1 advantage in primary ranking criteria to hold onto the last Pool B bid. So I’m fairly confident in projecting them to be in the tournament.
At-Large Bids: Pool C
The final two at-large bids honestly came down to the wire this year, and I’m going to start by saying it’s going to be between Vassar, Juniata, and St. John Fisher. I don’t think many people are tracking this because there’s a lot of competeing information.
Given St. John Fisher lost their quarterfinal round in the UVC tournament, a lot of people are writing off their at-large candidacy a little prematurely. Simply put, if Juniata and Vassar are in the conversation for the last at-large bid, so is St. John Fisher. I’ll highlight where each stands as of the data I last had in the graph below.
| NCAA Selection Criteria | St. John Fisher | Juniata | Vassar |
| Overall D3 Record | 25-6 | 25-6 | 23-7 |
| Head to Head | 3-1 Win (Juniata) 3-2 Win (Vassar) | 1-3 Loss (SJF) | 2-3 Loss (SJF) |
| Regional Ranked Record | 11-6 | 8-6 | 12-7 |
| Strength of Schedule | Below .600 | Above .600 | Above .600 (highest of the group) |
| Common Opponents | Win: Misericordia Win: Nazareth Win: Hobart Loss: Nazareth | Win: Nazareth Win: Hobart Win Lasell Loss: Misericordia | Win: Hobart Win: Nazareth Win: Misericordia L: Lasell |
Based on the above criteria, I would be VERY nervous if I was Juniata. As things stand the only metric they have over St. John Fisher is strength of schedule (which is important), BUT Vassar has the highest SOS of these three teams.
St. John Fisher has a head-to-head result over Juniata, and both the Cardinals and Brewers have important wins over a common opponent in Misericordia. Vassar and St. John Fisher also have more wins over Regionally Ranked teams than they do, which is generally a pretty big deal come selection time.
Obviously, St. John Fisher lost in their quarterfinal, so everyone I’ve spoken to has largely dismissed their NCAA chances. However, there is no rule that states you need to go x-far in your conference tournament to be considered for the NCAA tournament, which is something I think people need to be reminded of. Southern Virginia last year lost in their semifinal to Rutgers-Newark and were still very easily selected as an at-large bid.
I’ll be honest to the landscape, I literally couldn’t say with 100% certainty who is going to be chosen between these programs tomorrow. Based on the available data I have I’d say these are the last two picks for the tournament.
Pool C: St. John Fisher
Pool C: Vassar
Granted, I wouldn’t be surprised if Juniata was chosen either. Selection show is tomorrow at 10AM! See you there.