Happy Easter to all the D3 Volleyball fans out there.
Trivia Question: Is it possible for a better rated team on the T100 from any conference to be expected to have a lesser probability to earn a ticket to the National Tournament, P(NB), than a lesser ranked team from the same conference?
Answer: Yes. If the lower rated team has clinched a better seed in their conference bracket, then playing a weaker team in a semi match than the better ranked team would play in their semi could make it more likely to arrive in the championship match, even if playing that better team in the championship would make it a dog. i.e. Multiplying two probabilities using Bayes Theorem can yield a larger product even if the second factor is smaller than the other team’s. For example .80 x .45 = .36 which is larger than .60 x .55 = .33 even though the 2nd set of values indicates the team 3% less likely to get the bid would have a 55% chance to win should they play in the championship.
Can you find a situation like that in the T100 above?