Two topics for this week in Conference Corner: (They are BIG!)
[1] Taking a look at the 3rd week of conference win simulations – Where they have been, where they are now, and where they are going. (Most conferences are about two thirds of the way through their scheduled matches, and while some are looking crystal clear in their path, others are nearly as uncertain as they were when the season began. See where your favorites are going.
All 12 conference sims over the last 3 weeks are recorded and graphed along with the chances for any team to seize the coveted regular season title together with the 1st Seed that comes with it. The presentation of each conference looks like the sample below whose margins explain what to look for and how to read it. Find all 12 of them in the following presentation. ( Use arrow keys on your computer to get to the slide you are most interested in seeing.)
[2] Is another expert on the horizon? Does KPI have a role to play in rating D3 Men’s Volleyball in the future as part of “MORE?”
The KPI is one of 6 metrics the NCAA Men’s BB committee considered last week in assessing resumes of teams to be invited to participate in March Madness. It was invented more than a decade ago by Kevin Pauga, presently an Associate AD at Michigan State University. Unlike its weakling cousin, RPI, it utilizes factors beyond win percent and win percent of your opponents and their opponents. Apparently scoring margin, location, and opponent’s KPI rating play a role, too. All things similarly found in the other 3 computer models used in the “MORE.”
With a decade of scrutiny and the confidence of many in the stat world to have solidified its place, I have little doubt for its potential value, but the big question for me is less about how good it is and more about how good it isn’t, and under what conditions and why. What I mean by this is I need to know its flaws are different than the other 3 computer models used in the “MORE.” If it behaves less than ideal under the same conditions either the T100, IH’s Algorithm, or Massey does, then it likely would not enhance a “Wisdom of the Crowd” model. However, if its flaws are unique and independent of the others, then it certainly brings something positive. Remember I mentioned a couple weeks ago the intent is for the others to wash away whatever dirt any one of them brings to the table to produce a less noisy signal.
So why does KPI and Conference Corner (CC) join hands this week? A couple reasons, really. First, I have already delineated conference strength via Ranks, Ratings, and Rivalries in the first week, then through AZR (Average Z Score Ratings) last week in CC-Dos. On one hand, I preferred looking for another instrument to channel changing graphical approaches to see these 12 conferences from a different vantage point. To a lesser degree, the 4 regions to which they belong, too. On the other, I need opportunities to digest the KPI. Only through wrestling with it any which way I can will I really know when and to what degree it produces questionable output. (That is what needs to be done without a formula to dissect!) So this week’s KPI Conference- Corner is a win-win in my book.
So what are these new choices of graphs and why might they be of value? Whether it be a list, a dot-plot, a box-plot, or points on the normal curve like below (in blue), any of these will demonstrate both the order and magnitude of conference teams relative to the population at large. However, my new favorite has to be a coordinate plane whose x axis is teams’ strength with a y axis some form of an SOS metric. (Like the green one to the lower left on the form.) It can be done with all the computer models because each has their own version of a corresponding SOS. For me personally, I never report the one I utilize (TORA – T100 Opponent Rank – Adjusted) as a stand alone, unless it is in context to the distribution from which it comes, but I might make an exception this time as a y coordinate.
Every conference produces a form similar to the one below created using GNAC data. When comparing and contrasting the KPI and its T100 counterpart below on the right hand margin, you might also begin to see some blemishes I believe come about by non-conference scheduling practices for multiple teams in a conference. (More on that later.) As I look below to see Emmanuel ranked 44th to Rivier’s 45th with Rivier owning a T100 point total better by .13, it is a reminder I updated the T100 points this week before running simulations, but did not automatically update ranks along with them. (How else does 11.99 become lesser ranked than 11.86? It was either that or the new math being taught post Covid! LOL)
Should you want to check in on your favorite, just click the link below to see this format for any conference:
There is a lot to consider before committing to KPI as part of the AZR for all 124 teams. Regarding the KPI top 25 for the purposes of “Tuesdays with MORE”, I have very little objection to using it next week. (Shown at the end is what it would have looked like 3 days ago on Tuesday.) For any interested in a reason for my skepticism and the need to look deeper into what happens after the top 25 in the KPI, I will simply ask you a question to consider:
“Does anything peculiar happen to a SOS metric for teams in a conference, the top half extremely skilled who play a non conference schedule winning less than 50% of the time, when simultaneously, the lesser skilled bottom half’s non conference schedule allows it to win considerably more than 50% of the time?”
For example, what if the 3rd, 4th, and 5th best teams in a 10 team conference wins 26 of 67 non conference matches (less than 39%) while those finishing in 6th, 7th, and 8th win 39 out of 52 matches (75%) in its non-conference. That would likely make it so the top 5 wouldn’t win at least half, while the bottom 5 might very well win more than half, I think – Actually, it did…
Almost forgot…
For any who are interested in seeing last “Tuesdays with MORE,” including the KPI metric:
For those who like the numbers game, enjoy sinking your teeth into all this! I hope everybody gets their fill of volleyball drama this weekend – The good kind, of course.
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